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Description
Obtaining realistic uncertainty estimates is typically difficult but it'd be nice to offer some way of getting such estimates. I see effectively three main ones:
| Approach | Assumptions | Scale to large n | Scale to large p | Difficulty | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full Bayesian | Many | Yes but not meaningful | Not in general | Hard | > medium term |
| Approx Bayesian | Many ++ | Yes but not meaningful | Yes but not meaningful | Medium | medium term |
| Bootstrap | Few | Yes | Not in general | ~Easy | short term |
There may be other approaches or flavours of the above 3 (?, input welcome).
I think implementing/suppoorting bootstrapping soon-ish would be a good idea even though it's not perfect and does not work well in high dim AFAIK (though I don't know what does actually work in high dim...). There's already a package Bootstrap.jl and I'm not sure whether it's best to just interface with it via MLJModels or to write our own stuff.
Thoughts?
PS: to people who may be offended by the table above, apologies, it's not my intention to start a flame war; if you have suggestions and can guarantee that they offer realistic estimates in non-toy situations, please add them here.