@@ -217,12 +217,103 @@ Threshold:
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Proportion of points in low regime: 58.93% Middle regime: 28.57% High regime: 12.5%
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Warning message:
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Possible unit root in the low regime. Roots are: 0.4681 5.0788
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- > a<-setar(lynx,m=2)
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+ >
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+ > mod.set<-setar(lynx,m=2)
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Warning message:
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Possible unit root in the low regime. Roots are: 0.4681 5.0788
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- > deviance(a )
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+ > deviance(mod.set )
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[,1]
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[1,] 67408458
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+ > AIC(mod.set)
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+ [1] 1529.069
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+ > residuals(mod.set)
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+ Time Series:
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+ Start = 1821
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+ End = 1934
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+ Frequency = 1
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+ [1] NA NA -48.334389 -356.398640 -308.621925
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+ [6] 462.089426 611.889756 2469.789611 194.307104 353.217749
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+ [11] 40.076532 -35.854751 177.779287 -106.625012 -162.096294
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+ [16] 1450.559733 -862.435213 835.902133 -1208.231675 -431.124613
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+ [21] -33.600473 -132.823852 28.966801 75.721242 80.097116
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+ [26] -148.833806 -48.986302 -385.551454 -1576.277335 -802.660949
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+ [31] -60.279510 -500.291493 -3.932011 -11.831681 86.373876
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+ [36] 92.021530 -223.931449 -321.824234 -863.327375 -403.120907
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+ [41] -171.453963 -177.403452 82.100413 440.627116 560.866346
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+ [46] 3003.093961 -1771.815128 -232.815647 443.878500 169.463842
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+ [51] -635.852655 150.145353 -82.121135 -871.712286 218.685511
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+ [56] -1145.830623 -527.799227 -862.584958 -176.170166 -111.745286
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+ [61] 21.708570 -259.456108 524.554727 -240.086349 1546.040795
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+ [66] -1494.814417 -410.106973 224.019224 34.745038 -8.842103
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+ [71] -36.473689 73.401490 -34.361097 493.943275 1177.660470
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+ [76] -1220.260279 -1536.302071 207.945861 157.366583 76.645050
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+ [81] -78.108920 -296.263143 736.915868 2877.832238 119.543821
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+ [86] 924.713189 1093.738874 -221.986570 351.764615 64.313322
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+ [91] -334.020707 -183.034046 532.099556 -328.700370 1112.115402
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+ [96] 1501.717379 -2533.437252 105.046434 176.953675 -42.133945
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+ [101] 13.118914 -87.408000 299.860224 -38.791675 409.542465
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+ [106] -457.232982 -340.694848 -363.171545 -100.285905 -244.603071
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+ [111] -338.066847 -462.203756 273.734606 336.451932
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+ > fitted(mod.set)
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+ Time Series:
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+ Start = 1821
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+ End = 1934
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+ Frequency = 1
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+ [1] NA NA 633.334389 1227.398640 1783.621925 2358.910574
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+ [7] 3316.110244 3473.210389 4755.692896 2223.782251 482.923468 133.854751
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+ [13] 6.220713 385.625012 571.096294 834.440267 3547.435213 2573.097867
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+ [19] 3032.231675 840.124613 184.600473 177.823852 39.033199 137.278758
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+ [25] 465.902884 1181.833806 2177.986302 2921.551454 2533.277335 1163.660949
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+ [31] 437.279510 725.291493 363.932011 742.831681 1551.626124 2632.978470
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+ [37] 3094.931449 2440.824234 1547.327375 702.120907 407.453963 422.403452
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+ [43] 469.899587 1182.372884 2750.133654 3717.906039 6025.815128 919.815647
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+ [49] -188.878500 303.536158 993.852655 633.854647 1676.121135 2547.712286
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+ [55] 2032.314489 2571.830623 1283.799227 1161.584958 377.170166 340.745286
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+ [61] 447.291430 995.456108 1517.445273 3051.086349 2884.959205 4005.814417
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+ [67] 799.106973 -151.019224 4.254962 57.842103 95.473689 114.598510
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+ [73] 411.361097 798.056725 2853.339530 4715.260279 2123.302071 -102.945861
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+ [79] -4.366583 310.354950 836.108920 1603.263143 2728.084132 4113.167762
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+ [85] 6193.456179 2869.286811 742.261126 566.986570 30.235385 743.686678
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+ [91] 1722.020707 2896.034046 3267.900444 3419.700370 1872.884598 2288.282621
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+ [97] 3207.437252 -24.046434 -96.953675 150.133945 215.881086 486.408000
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+ [103] 832.139776 2470.791675 3164.457535 3392.232982 1877.694848 892.171545
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+ [109] 585.285905 906.603071 1338.066847 2052.203756 2383.265394 3059.548068
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+ > coef(mod.set)
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+ const L phiL.1 phiL.2 const H phiH.1 phiH.2
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+ -2.4440208 2.3330905 -0.4206083 1465.1336611 1.0441036 -0.7419930
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+ th
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+ 1388.0000000
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+ > regime(mod.set)
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+ Time Series:
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+ Start = 1821
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+ End = 1934
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+ Frequency = 1
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+ [1] NA NA 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
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+ [26] 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1
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+ [51] 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
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+ [76] 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1
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+ [101] 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2
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+ > regime(mod.set, initVal=FALSE)
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+ Time Series:
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+ Start = 1823
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+ End = 1934
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+ Frequency = 1
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+ [1] 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
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+ [38] 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
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+ [75] 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2
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+ [112] 2
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+ > regime(mod.set, time=FALSE)
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+ [1] NA NA 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
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+ [26] 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1
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+ [51] 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
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+ [76] 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1
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+ [101] 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2
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+ > regime(mod.set, time=FALSE, initVal=FALSE)
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+ [1] 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
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+ [38] 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
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+ [75] 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2
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+ [112] 2
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+ >
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>
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> ###SelectSetar
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> selectSETAR(lynx, m=2, d=1, trace=TRUE, include = "const", common="none", model="TAR", nthresh=1,trim=0.15,criterion = "SSR",thSteps = 7, plot=FALSE,max.iter=2)
@@ -601,6 +692,27 @@ long.run 1.679343 1.553736 1.396517 1.350065 1.343899 2.767290 3.306703
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short.run 3.847545 3.776640 3.775173 3.812762 3.950920 3.875393 3.883139
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long.run 3.463008 3.284285 3.479202 3.359551 3.464675 3.438463 3.595674
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>
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+ > regime(tvar)
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+ [1] NA NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
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+ [26] 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
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+ [51] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2
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+ [76] 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
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+ > regime(tvar, initVal=FALSE)
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+ [1] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
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+ [39] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3
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+ [77] 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
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+ attr(,"tsp")
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+ [1] 3 100 1
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+ > regime(tvar, time=FALSE)
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+ [1] NA NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
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+ [26] 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
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+ [51] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2
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+ [76] 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
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+ > regime(tvar, time=FALSE, initVal=FALSE)
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+ [1] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
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+ [39] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3
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+ [77] 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
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+ >
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>
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> ##FIXME
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> options(show.signif.stars=TRUE)
@@ -930,6 +1042,81 @@ Equation long.run -0.0316(0.7878)
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Threshold
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Values: -1.414 0.643
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Percentage of Observations in each regime 6.7% 52.9% 40.4%>
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+ > regime(tvecm)
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+ [1] NA NA 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
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+ [26] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
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+ [51] 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
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+ [76] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
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+ [101] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3
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+ [126] 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
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+ [151] 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
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+ [176] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2
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+ [201] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1
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+ [226] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 2
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+ [251] 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2
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+ [276] 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3
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+ [301] 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2
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+ [326] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
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+ [351] 1 1 2 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 2
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+ [376] 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
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+ [401] 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2
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+ [426] 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
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+ [451] 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
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+ [476] 2 3 3 3 2 3 3
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+ > regime(tvecm, initVal=FALSE)
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+ [1] 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 3
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+ [38] 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
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+ [75] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
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+ [112] 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
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+ [149] 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
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+ [186] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1
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+ [223] 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
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+ [260] 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2
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+ [297] 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1
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+ [334] 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3
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+ [371] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3
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+ [408] 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
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+ [445] 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 3 3
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+ attr(,"tsp")
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+ [1] 3 482 1
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+ > regime(tvecm, time=FALSE)
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+ [1] NA NA 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
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+ [26] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
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+ [51] 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
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+ [76] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
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+ [101] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3
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+ [126] 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
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+ [151] 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
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+ [176] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2
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+ [201] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1
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+ [226] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 2
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+ [251] 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2
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+ [276] 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3
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+ [301] 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2
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+ [326] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
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+ [351] 1 1 2 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 2
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+ [376] 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
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+ [401] 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2
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+ [426] 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
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+ [451] 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
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+ [476] 2 3 3 3 2 3 3
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+ > regime(tvecm, time=FALSE, initVal=FALSE)
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+ [1] 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 3
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+ [38] 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
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+ [75] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
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+ [112] 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
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+ [149] 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
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+ [186] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1
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+ [223] 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
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+ [260] 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2
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+ [297] 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1
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+ [334] 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3
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+ [371] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3
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+ [408] 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
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+ [445] 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 3 3
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+ >
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+ >
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+ >
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> toLatex(tvecm)
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%insert in the preamble and uncomment the line you want for usual /medium /small matrix
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%\usepackage{amsmath} \newenvironment{smatrix}{\begin{pmatrix}}{\end{pmatrix}} %USUAL
@@ -1250,4 +1437,4 @@ Equation long.run 0.0667(0.0684) -0.0273(0.1185) -0.0702(0.0672)
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>
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> proc.time()
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user system elapsed
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- 5.240 0.080 5.323
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+ 5.390 0.070 5.506
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