Health Impact of Realistic Consumable Availability Scenarios (#1367)

Co-authored-by: sm2511 <[email protected]>
Co-authored-by: Tim Hallett <[email protected]>
Co-authored-by: Asif Tamuri <[email protected]>

Author: 4 people

pyproject.toml

@@ -122,6 +122,7 @@ markers = ["group2", "slow"]
 [tool.ruff]
 target-version = "py311"
 line-length = 120
+exclude = ['src/tlo/_version.py']
 
 [tool.ruff.lint]
 select = ["E", "F", "I", "W"]

resources/costing/ResourceFile_Consumables_Inflow_Outflow_Ratio.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
+oid sha256:08d90ee43dc06a9e95a25f3feb53d4bd6bf5fd686c782de6805fd57f2aafc01d
+size 487009

resources/healthsystem/consumables/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,65 @@
+## Consumable Availability Scenarios
+
+This README describes the different **scenarios** used in consumable availability analysis. Each scenario corresponds to a specific level of availability of consumables across health facilities and months. The data for these scenarios are stored in columns such as `available_prop_scenario1`, `available_prop_scenario2`, etc., in the `ResourceFile_Consumables_availability_small.csv`. This is generated by the the following scripts - 1. `consumable_availability_estimation.py` generates the `available_prop` column representing the proportion of instances that a consumables is likely to be available given the levels of availability observed during 2018, 2. `generate_consumable_availability_scenarios_for_impact_analysis.py` generates additional scenarios of consumable availability ans appends them to the file generated by the first script.  
+
+The scenario names below can be specified as parameters for `cons_availability` under `HealthSystem` when running simulations. 
+
+---
+
+### **Base Scenario**
+- `default`
+  - **Description:** Actual 2018 availability estimates based on OpenLMIS data.
+  - **Purpose:** Serves as the baseline for comparisons.
+
+---
+
+### **Scenarios 1–5: System-Level Improvements at Level 1a + 1b **
+These are based on regression analysis performed in [Mohan et al (2024)](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38762283/).
+
+| Scenario | Column Name               | Description |
+|----------|---------------------------|-------------|
+| 1        | `scenario1` | All items perform like *non-drug/diagnostic* consumables. |
+| 2        | `scenario2` | Scenario 1 + all items match performance of *vital* medicines. |
+| 3        | `scenario3` | Scenario 2 + all facilities match those managed by *pharmacists*. |
+| 4        | `scenario4` | Scenario 3 + Level 1a facilities perform like Level 1b. |
+| 5        | `scenario5` | Scenario 4 + All facilities perform like *CHAM* facilities. |
+
+---
+
+### **Scenarios 6–9: Benchmarking Against Best Facilities**
+| Scenario | Column Name               | Description |
+|----------|---------------------------|-------------|
+| 6        | `scenario6` | All Level 1a/1b facilities match the *75th percentile* facility for each item. |
+| 7        | `scenario7` | Same as above but using the *90th percentile*. |
+| 8        | `scenario8` | Same as above but using the *99th percentile*. |
+| 9        | `scenario9` | Level 1a, 1b, and 2 facilities match the *99th percentile*. |
+
+---
+
+### **Scenarios 10–11: Horizontal Supply Chain Alignment**
+| Scenario | Column Name               | Description |
+|----------|---------------------------|-------------|
+| 10       | `scenario10` | All programs perform as well as *HIV* programs (only levels 1a and 1b updated). |
+| 11       | `scenario11` | All programs perform as well as *EPI* programs (only levels 1a and 1b updated). |
+
+Scenarios 6-8 and 10-11 only include levels 1a and 1b where most of the service is delivered and consumable availability is particularly a challenge to match up with the regression-analysis-based scenarios 1-5
+
+---
+
+### **Scenarios 12–15: HIV Drug Supply Adjustments**
+| Scenario | Column Name               | Description |
+|----------|---------------------------|-------------|
+| 12       | `scenario12` | HIV performs as well (i.e. as badly) as general programs (excluding EPI and Cancer), benchmarked at *Facility_Level*. |
+| 13       | `scenario13` | HIV performs as well as other programs, benchmarked at *Facility_ID*. |
+| 14       | `scenario14` | Same as Scenario 13, but availability scaled *up* by 25%. |
+| 15       | `scenario15` | Same as Scenario 13, but availability scaled *down* by 25%. |
+
+---
+
+### **Upper Bound Scenario**
+- **`all`**
+  - **Description:** All consumables are always available (i.e., 100% availability).
+  - **Purpose:** Represents the theoretical upper bound for health gains due to supply improvements.
+
+---
+

resources/healthsystem/consumables/ResourceFile_Consumables_Item_Designations.csv

@@ -1,3 +1,3 @@
 version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
-oid sha256:c953a6136e61fe55181e477e6c1425ec010ac55b180351f0f466da2c2eb0d379
-size 67854
+oid sha256:5c03fd1b3ad2a7352dcbc41ab891744fb8b82f37c131798596e46fe3c00d0a15
+size 72294

resources/healthsystem/consumables/ResourceFile_Consumables_availability_small.csv

@@ -1,3 +1,3 @@
 version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
-oid sha256:8bf105eb266c173feaef4068d100af4ea51f2542c3cac9505a704abade360820
-size 6202574
+oid sha256:f945b15a98e571464b6931f0a3a071c1c90be93d8ba0bd9d1eca751caab34793
+size 55657974

resources/healthsystem/consumables/ResourceFile_consumables_matched.csv

@@ -1,3 +1,3 @@
 version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
-oid sha256:793e3b2a94949fdf025bb5297de40a0092c41ad61f6fa0a4de4898de5cfdf2f3
-size 90677
+oid sha256:380de2593127b48c6a43f14be6c55bf5c4f78a609b843e4cb66b8066ef7f9399
+size 124792