Skip to content
New issue

Have a question about this project? Sign up for a free GitHub account to open an issue and contact its maintainers and the community.

By clicking “Sign up for GitHub”, you agree to our terms of service and privacy statement. We’ll occasionally send you account related emails.

Already on GitHub? Sign in to your account

Suggestion: Introduce parameter inverse transformation after fit to rescaled time series #748

Open
Kayne88 opened this issue Oct 22, 2024 · 2 comments

Comments

@Kayne88
Copy link

Kayne88 commented Oct 22, 2024

Hello,

Excellent work with the library. Has been of great use so far. One thing which required some time to pin down is that parameter estimates are for the rescaled timeseries and not for the original one.

If one wants to calculate analytical quantities based on the parameters or simulate trajectories, they won't resemble the original ones.

It could be an improvement to return the inverse scaled parameter estimates.

For example for a AR(1)+GARCH(1,1) process:
c = c_tilde/C
phi = phi_tilde
omega = omega_tilde/C**2
alpha = alpha_tilde
beta = beta_tilde
where *_tilde denotes the estimates for the scaled process

Cheers

@bashtage
Copy link
Owner

This is a good idea. I think a slightly better one would be to pass in a scale parameter to the LL which would the rescale the intercept only, which is easy to undo.

@bashtage
Copy link
Owner

The challenge with descaling is that the effect on the intercept depends on the model, and is non trivial when the model is not linear in the squares, e.g., EGARCH).

Sign up for free to join this conversation on GitHub. Already have an account? Sign in to comment
Labels
None yet
Projects
None yet
Development

No branches or pull requests

2 participants