-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 2
/
Copy pathnlb.html
268 lines (261 loc) · 9.26 KB
/
nlb.html
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
<html>
<head>
<title>Bitcoin - Never Look Back Price (NLB) Charts</title>
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
<link rel="shortcut icon" href="images/chart-icon.png" />
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="css/index.css"/>
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="css/responsive.css"/>
<!-- Global site tag (gtag.js) - Google Analytics -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=UA-152601513-2"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'UA-152601513-2');
</script>
</head>
<body>
<div class="nav-wrap">
<div class="nav">
<a class="home" href="/">
<span></span>
<span></span>
<span></span>
</a>
<a class="selected" href="/nlb.html">NLB</a>
<a href="/plc.html">PLC</a>
<!-- <a href="/stock-to-flow.html">Stock to Flow</a> -->
</div>
</div>
<div class="content">
<h1>Bitcoin's Never Look Back Price</h1>
<p class="intro">
As described in
<!-- <a href="https://medium.com/@cane.island/why-bitcoin-is-never-looking-back-f06ab333742e">this Medium article</a> -->
<!-- <a href="https://www.caneislandcrypto.com/blog/2019/10/5/why-bitcoin-is-never-looking-back">this article</a> -->
<a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5d580747908cdc0001e6792d/t/5e93243abadd4454b360bf18/1586701372057/research+note+4.12.pdf">this article</a>
by
<a href="https://twitter.com/nsquaredcrypto">Timothy Peterson</a>
</p>
<div id="basic">
<div class="chart-header">
<h2>Basic NLB</h2>
<div class="chart-data chart-data-top">
<div class="date"></div>
<div>
Price: <span class="price"></span>
NLB: <span class="forward-minimum"></span>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="description">
<div class="quote">“</div>
<div class="inner">
<p>
Bitcoin has a relatively unnoticed and — for most — unknown
characteristic. I call it the “Never Look Back Price.” The NLB price is
the last time bitcoin was at a particular price level. Once it reached
that price, it only proceeded up, it never retraced to that value
again.
</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="chart-wrapper">
<table class="chart-data chart-data-overlay">
<tr>
<td>Date</td>
<td class="date"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Price</td>
<td class="price"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NLB</td>
<td class="forward-minimum"></td>
</tr>
</table>
<div id="basic_chart" class="chart">
<div class="chart-loading">
<div>Loading…</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div id="regression">
<div class="chart-header">
<h2>Regression</h2>
<div class="chart-data chart-data-top">
<div class="date"></div>
<div>
NLB: <span class="forward-minimum"></span>
Max: <span class="deviation d-max"></span>
Expected: <span class="expected"></span>
Min: <span class="deviation d-min"></span>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="description">
<div class="quote">“</div>
<div class="inner">
<p>
I have plotted these NLB prices on a lognormal scale over
time. The result was amazing. The horizontal scale is “square root
time”, which is just regular time plotted on a different scale. It
essentially equates traditional time-value of money concepts to
bitcoin's adoption rate, and therefore price.
</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="chart-wrapper">
<table class="chart-data chart-data-overlay">
<tr>
<td>Date</td>
<td class="date"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NLB</td>
<td class="forward-minimum"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Max</td>
<td class="deviation d-max"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Expected</td>
<td class="expected"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Min</td>
<td class="deviation d-min"></td>
</tr>
</table>
<div id="regression_chart" class="chart">
<div class="chart-loading">
<div>Loading…</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="slider-container">
<input type="range" id="regression_chart_range" class="chart-range" min="0" max="150" value="100">
</div>
</div>
<div id="extrapolation">
<div class="chart-header">
<h2>Linear Scales</h2>
<div class="chart-data chart-data-top">
<div class="date"></div>
<div>
Price: <span class="price"></span>
Max: <span class="deviation d-max"></span>
Expected: <span class="expected"></span>
Min: <span class="deviation d-min"></span>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="description">
<div class="quote">“</div>
<div class="inner">
<p>
The NLB price represents a floor value for bitcoin. The actual
price could be higher, but significantly higher prices will fall
back down to the floor value. The NLB price is a sustainable price
over the long term.
</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="chart-wrapper">
<table class="chart-data chart-data-overlay">
<tr>
<td>Date</td>
<td class="date"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Price</td>
<td class="price"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Max</td>
<td class="deviation d-max"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Expected</td>
<td class="expected"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Min</td>
<td class="deviation d-min"></td>
</tr>
</table>
<div id="extrapolation_chart" class="chart">
<div class="chart-loading">
<div>Loading…</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="slider-container">
<input type="range" id="extrapolation_chart_range" class="chart-range" min="0" max="150" value="100">
</div>
</div>
<h2>Data Points</h2>
<div class="description">
<div class="quote">“</div>
<div class="inner">
<p>
Is this NLB price a trend that will continue? Like I mentioned
before, we don't know what the next lowest price is until we hit
that price. There will undoubtedly be skeptics who criticize this
methodology, and healthy professional skepticism is beneficial
because it keeps expectations realistic. On the other hand, would
you bet money that the price will fall substantially, say, to
$4,000, given the ten-year history of the Never Look Back price? I
think that might take some guts, to say the least.
</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="data-points">
<div>
<h3>Today</h3>
<table>
<tr class="deviation">
<td>Max price</td>
<td id="today_max"></td>
</tr>
<tr class="expected">
<td>Expected price</td>
<td id="today_expected"></td>
</tr>
<tr class="deviation">
<td>Min price</td>
<td id="today_min"></td>
</tr>
</table>
</div>
<div>
<h3>5 Years</h3>
<table id="year_data_points"></table>
</div>
<div>
<h3>Goals</h3>
<table id="magnitude_data_points"></table>
</div>
</div>
<div class="credits">
<p class="last-line">
“Bitcoin's Never Look Back price is a picture of bitcoin adoption.”
</p>
<a class="original-article" href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5d580747908cdc0001e6792d/t/5e93243abadd4454b360bf18/1586701372057/research+note+4.12.pdf">
Original Article by Timothy Peterson
</a>
</div>
<div class="footer">
<p class="true-til-not">
It's true until it's not.
<span class="take-a-while">But that might take a while.</span>
</p>
<p><a href="https://github.com/cilphex/bitcoin-never-look-back">Open source</a></p>
</div>
</div>
</body>
<script type="module" src="js/charts/nlb/index.js"></script>
</html>