.Rhistory

lname == "feingold" & fname == "russell" ~ "russ",
lname == "baesler" & fname == "henry" ~ "scotty",
lname == "capito" & fname == "shelley" ~ "shelley moore",
lname == "abraham" & fname == "edmond" ~ "spencer",
lname == "beshear" & fname == "steven" ~ "steve",
lname == "daines" & fname == "steven" ~ "steve",
lname == "lewis" & fname == "stephen" ~ "steve",
lname == "pearce" & fname == "stevan" ~ "steve",
lname == "sauerberg" & fname == "steven" ~ "steve",
lname == "sydness" & fname == "steven" ~ "steve",
lname == "thurmond" & fname == "james" ~ "strom",
lname == "duckworth" & fname == "l tammy" ~ "tammy",
lname == "celeste" & fname == "theodore" ~ "ted",
lname == "cruz" & fname == "rafael" ~ "ted",
lname == "kennedy" & fname == "edward" ~ "ted",
lname == "muenster" & fname == "theodore" ~ "ted",
lname == "land" & fname == "terri" ~ "terri lynn",
lname == "considine" & fname == "terrence" ~ "terry",
lname == "sanford" & fname == "james" ~ "terry",
lname == "cochran" & fname == "william" ~ "thad",
lname == "hutchinson" & fname == "y tim" ~ "tim",
lname == "kaine" & fname == "timothy" ~ "tim",
lname == "scott" & fname == "timothy" ~ "tim",
lname == "allen" & fname == "thomas" ~ "tom",
lname == "bruggere" & fname == "thomas" ~ "tom",
lname == "carper" & fname == "thomas" ~ "tom",
lname == "coburn" & fname == "thomas" ~ "tom",
lname == "cotton" & fname == "thomas" ~ "tom",
lname == "daschle" & fname == "thomas" ~ "tom",
lname == "harkin" & fname == "thomas" ~ "tom",
lname == "hartnett" & fname == "thomas" ~ "tommy",
lname == "strickland" & fname == "thomas" ~ "tom",
lname == "sullivan" & fname == "p tom" ~ "tom",
lname == "figures" & fname == "vivian" ~ "vivian davis",
lname == "minnick" & fname == "walter" ~ "walt",
lname == "allard" & fname == "a wayne" ~ "wayne",
lname == "ball" & fname == "gordon" ~ "william gordon",
lname == "lujan" & fname == "ben" ~ "ben ray",
lname == "slattery" & fname == "james" ~ "jim",
lname == "hoeven" & fname == "john & dalrymple" ~ "john",
lname == "hegar" & fname == "mary" ~ "mj",
lname == "mehta" & fname == "rikin" ~ "rik",
lname == "tuberville" & fname == "thomas" ~ "tommy",
TRUE ~ fname),
lname = case_when(lname == "damato" & fname == "al" ~ "d'amato",
lname == "orourke" & fname == "beto" ~ "o'rourke",
lname == "hyde smith" & fname == "cindy" ~ "hyde-smith",
lname == "rothman serot" & fname == "geri" ~ "rothman-serot",
lname == "lloyd jones" & fname == "jean" ~ "lloyd-jones",
lname == "odonnell" & fname == "christine" ~ "o'donnell",
TRUE ~ lname))
names_scores <- merge(poll_names,
select(scores,c(cycle, lname, fname, recipient.cfscore)),
by = c("fname", "lname", "cycle"), all.x = T) %>%
add_count(candidate_name, cycle)
# check missing cf scores
missing_cf_score <- subset(names_scores, is.na(recipient.cfscore) == T)
# merge without cycle
matching_cf_score <- merge(select(missing_cf_score, -recipient.cfscore),
select(scores,c(lname, fname, recipient.cfscore)),
by = c("lname", "fname")) %>%
distinct()
View(matching_cf_score)
View(missing_cf_score)
which(!(missing_cf_score[,-"recipient.cfscore"] %in% matching_cf_score[,-"recipient.cfscore"]))
check <- anti_join((missing_cf_score[,-"recipient.cfscore"], matching_cf_score[,-"recipient.cfscore"]))
check <- anti_join(missing_cf_score[,-"recipient.cfscore"], matching_cf_score[,-"recipient.cfscore"])
check <- anti_join(missing_cf_score[,-c("recipient.cfscore")], matching_cf_score[,c(-"recipient.cfscore")])
missing_cf_score[,-c("recipient.cfscore")]
missing_cf_score %>% select(-recipient.cfscore)
check <- anti_join(missing_cf_score %>% select(-recipient.cfscore),
matching_cf_score %>% select(-recipient.cfscore))
View(check)
rm(cands, matching_cf_score, missing_cf_score, poll_names, scores)
# prepare candidate names in poll data
polls <- polls %>%
mutate(candidate_name_rep = candidate_name_rep %>%
tolower() %>%
str_replace_all(" van ", " van") %>%
str_remove_all("\\s+iii|[,]"),
candidate_name_rep =  case_when(candidate_name_rep == "pipkin" ~ "e pipkin",
TRUE ~ candidate_name_rep),
candidate_name_dem = candidate_name_dem %>%
tolower() %>%
str_replace_all(" van ", " van") %>%
str_remove_all("\\s+iii|[,]"))
# Dem. candidates
polls_scores_dem <- merge(polls,
select(names_scores, c(candidate_name, cycle,
recipient.cfscore)),
by.x = c("candidate_name_dem", "cycle"),
by.y = c("candidate_name", "cycle"), all.x = T) %>%
rename(cf_score_dem = recipient.cfscore)
library(tidyverse)
# polls
polls <- readRDS("data/polls/us_senate_1990_2022_finance.RDS")
# scores
cf_scores <- read.csv("data/election_features/dime_recipients_1979_2020.csv")
# candidate names in polls
poll_names <- polls %>%
select(candidate_name_dem, candidate_name_rep, cycle) %>%
gather(key = party, value = candidate_name,
candidate_name_dem:candidate_name_rep) %>%
mutate(candidate_name = candidate_name %>%
tolower() %>%
str_replace_all(" van ", " van") %>%
str_remove_all("\\s+iii|[,]"),
candidate_name =  case_when(candidate_name == "pipkin" ~ "e pipkin",
TRUE ~ candidate_name),
party = str_remove_all(party, "candidate_name_")) %>%
distinct() %>%
extract(candidate_name, into = c('fname', 'lname'), '(.*)\\s+([^ ]+)$',
remove = F)
# scores
scores <- cf_scores %>%
filter(seat == "federal:senate" &
!(lname == "orourke" & cycle == 2020) &
!(lname == "campbell" & fname == "ben" &  party == 200) |
(seat == "federal:house" & lname == "jeffords")) %>%
select(fecyear, recipient.cfscore, party, lname, fname) %>%
filter(!is.na(recipient.cfscore)) %>% mutate(across(where(is.character), ~ na_if(.x, ""))) %>%
distinct() %>%
rename(cycle = fecyear) %>%
mutate(fname = case_when(lname == "giannoulias" & fname == "alexander" ~ "alexi",
lname == "grimes" & fname == "alison" ~ "alison lundergan",
lname == "damato" & fname == "alfonse" ~ "al",
lname == "sanders" & fname == "alexander" ~ "alex",
lname == "raczkowski" & fname == "andrew" ~ "andrew rocky",
lname == "radnofsky" & fname == "barbara" ~ "barbara ann",
lname == "hinckley" & fname == "benjamin" ~ "barry",
lname == "cardin" & fname == "benjamin" ~ "ben",
lname == "nelson" & fname == "e benjamin" ~ "ben",
lname == "campbell" & fname == "ben" ~ "ben nighthorse",
lname == "sasse" & fname == "benjamin" ~ "ben",
lname == "orourke" & fname == "robert" ~ "beto",
lname == "brock" & fname == "william" ~ "bill",
lname == "frist" & fname == "william" ~ "bill",
lname == "lloyd" & fname == "william" ~ "bill",
lname == "schuette" & fname == "william" ~ "bill",
lname == "bennett" & fname == "robert" ~ "bob",
lname == "casey" & fname == "robert" ~ "bob",
lname == "franks" & fname == "robert" ~ "bob",
lname == "conley" & fname == "robert" ~ "bob",
lname == "corker" & fname == "robert" ~ "bob",
lname == "hugin" & fname == "robert" ~ "bob",
lname == "inglis" & fname == "robert" ~ "bob",
lname == "kasten" & fname == "robert" ~ "bob",
lname == "kerrey" & fname == "j robert" ~ "bob",
lname == "menendez" & fname == "robert" ~ "bob",
lname == "packwood" & fname == "robert" ~ "bob",
lname == "schaffer" & fname == "robert" ~ "bob",
lname == "tuke" & fname == "robert" ~ "bob",
lname == "hutto" & fname == "charles" ~ "brad",
lname == "braun" & fname == "carol" ~ "carol moseley",
lname == "masto" & fname == "catherine" ~ "catherine cortez",
lname == "crist" & fname == "charles" ~ "charlie",
lname == "farley" & fname == "chele" ~ "chele chiavacci",
lname == "pingree" & fname == "rochelle" ~ "chellie",
lname == "coons" & fname == "christopher" ~ "chris",
lname == "dodd" & fname == "christopher" ~ "chris",
lname == "murphy" & fname == "christopher" ~ "chris",
lname == "rothfuss" & fname == "christopher" ~ "chris",
lname == "grassley" & fname == "charles" ~ "chuck",
lname == "hagel" & fname == "charles" ~ "chuck",
lname == "haytaian" & fname == "garabed" ~ "chuck",
lname == "groutage" & fname == "f dale" ~ "dale",
lname == "coats" & fname == "daniel" ~ "dan",
lname == "coats" & fname == "daniel" ~ "dan",
lname == "moynihan" & fname == "daniel" ~ "daniel patrick",
lname == "domina" & fname == "david" ~ "dave",
lname == "fischer" & fname == "debra" ~ "deb",
lname == "rehberg" & fname == "dennis" ~ "denny",
lname == "durbin" & fname == "richard" ~ "dick",
lname == "nickles" & fname == "donald" ~ "don",
lname == "lamm" & fname == "dorothy" ~ "dottie",
lname == "forrester" & fname == "douglas" ~ "doug",
lname == "flanagan" & fname == "edward" ~ "ed",
lname == "gillespie" & fname == "edward" ~ "ed",
lname == "bernstein" & fname == "ed" ~ "edward",
lname == "flanagan" & fname == "edward" ~ "ed",
lname == "ganske" & fname == "john" ~ "greg",
lname == "furman" & fname == "harold" ~ "hal",
lname == "lonsdale" & fname == "harold" ~ "harry",
lname == "carter" & fname == "john" ~ "jack",
lname == "conway" & fname == "john" ~ "jack",
lname == "markey" & fname == "edward" ~ "ed",
lname == "lightfoot" & fname == "james" ~ "james ross",
lname == "stoney" & fname == "janice" ~ "jan",
lname == "nixon" & fname == "jeremiah" ~ "jay",
lname == "bell" & fname == "jeffrey" ~ "jeff",
lname == "beatty" & fname == "jeffrey" ~ "jeff",
lname == "clark" & fname == "william" ~ "jeff",
lname == "merkley" & fname == "jeffrey" ~ "jeff",
lname == "barksdale" & fname == "james" ~ "jim",
lname == "demint" & fname == "james" ~ "jim",
lname == "durkin" & fname == "james" ~ "jim",
lname == "huffman" & fname == "james" ~ "jim",
lname == "inhofe" & fname == "james" ~ "jim",
lname == "jeffords" & fname == "james" ~ "jim",
lname == "martin" & fname == "james" ~ "jim",
lname == "newberger" & fname == "james" ~ "jim",
lname == "oberweis" & fname == "james" ~ "jim",
lname == "rappaport" & fname == "james" ~ "jim",
lname == "renacci" & fname == "james" ~ "jim",
lname == "risch" & fname == "james" ~ "jim",
lname == "sasser" & fname == "james" ~ "jim",
lname == "talent" & fname == "james" ~ "jim",
lname == "webb" & fname == "james" ~ "jim",
lname == "biden" & fname == "joseph" ~ "joe",
lname == "donnelly" & fname == "joseph" ~ "joe",
lname == "hoeffel" & fname == "joseph" ~ "joe",
lname == "kyrillos" & fname == "joseph" ~ "joe",
lname == "lieberman" & fname == "joseph" ~ "joe",
lname == "sestak" & fname == "joseph" ~ "joe",
lname == "isakson" & fname == "john" ~ "johnny",
lname == "carroll" & fname == "john" ~ "john stanley",
lname == "brennan" & fname == "joseph" ~ "joseph edward",
lname == "hawley" & fname == "joshua" ~ "josh",
lname == "heath" & fname == "josephine" ~ "josie",
lname == "mcginty" & fname == "kathleen" ~ "kathleen alana",
lname == "hutchison" & fname == "kay" ~ "kay bailey",
lname == "buck" & fname == "kenneth" ~ "ken",
lname == "bond" & fname == "christopher" ~ "kit",
lname == "faircloth" & fname == "duncan" ~ "lauch",
lname == "weinberg" & fname == "lois" ~ "lois combs",
lname == "hassan" & fname == "margaret" ~ "maggie",
lname == "hatfield" & fname == "mark" ~ "mark odom",
lname == "nunn" & fname == "mary" ~ "mary michelle",
lname == "fong" & fname == "matthew" ~ "matt",
lname == "silverstein" & fname == "matthew" ~ "matt",
lname == "cleland" & fname == "joseph" ~ "max",
lname == "bouchard" & fname == "michael" ~ "mike",
lname == "crapo" & fname == "michael" ~ "mike",
lname == "enzi" & fname == "michael" ~ "mike",
lname == "espy" & fname == "michael" ~ "mike",
lname == "johanns" & fname == "michael" ~ "mike",
lname == "mcfadden" & fname == "michael" ~ "mike",
lname == "mcgavick" & fname == "michael" ~ "mike",
lname == "taylor" & fname == "michael" ~ "mike",
lname == "romney" & fname == "w mitt" ~ "mitt",
lname == "mitchell" & fname == "briane" ~ "nels",
lname == "cleland" & fname == "joseph" ~ "max",
lname == "ashdown" & fname == "peter" ~ "pete",
lname == "coors" & fname == "peter" ~ "pete",
lname == "hoekstra" & fname == "peter" ~ "pete",
lname == "bredesen" & fname == "philip" ~ "phil",
lname == "mountjoy" & fname == "richard" ~ "richard dick",
lname == "swett" & fname == "dick" ~ "richard",
lname == "gramm" & fname == "william" ~ "phil",
lname == "berg" & fname == "richard" ~ "rick",
lname == "noriega" & fname == "richard" ~ "rick",
lname == "santorum" & fname == "richard" ~ "rick",
lname == "portman" & fname == "robert" ~ "rob",
lname == "crumpton" & fname == "ronald" ~ "ronald steven",
lname == "johnson" & fname == "ronald" ~ "ron",
lname == "kirk" & fname == "ronald" ~ "ron",
lname == "klink" & fname == "ronald" ~ "ron",
lname == "sims" & fname == "ronald" ~ "ron",
lname == "boschwitz" & fname == "rudolph" ~ "rudy",
lname == "feingold" & fname == "russell" ~ "russ",
lname == "baesler" & fname == "henry" ~ "scotty",
lname == "capito" & fname == "shelley" ~ "shelley moore",
lname == "abraham" & fname == "edmond" ~ "spencer",
lname == "beshear" & fname == "steven" ~ "steve",
lname == "daines" & fname == "steven" ~ "steve",
lname == "lewis" & fname == "stephen" ~ "steve",
lname == "pearce" & fname == "stevan" ~ "steve",
lname == "sauerberg" & fname == "steven" ~ "steve",
lname == "sydness" & fname == "steven" ~ "steve",
lname == "thurmond" & fname == "james" ~ "strom",
lname == "duckworth" & fname == "l tammy" ~ "tammy",
lname == "celeste" & fname == "theodore" ~ "ted",
lname == "cruz" & fname == "rafael" ~ "ted",
lname == "kennedy" & fname == "edward" ~ "ted",
lname == "muenster" & fname == "theodore" ~ "ted",
lname == "land" & fname == "terri" ~ "terri lynn",
lname == "considine" & fname == "terrence" ~ "terry",
lname == "sanford" & fname == "james" ~ "terry",
lname == "cochran" & fname == "william" ~ "thad",
lname == "hutchinson" & fname == "y tim" ~ "tim",
lname == "kaine" & fname == "timothy" ~ "tim",
lname == "scott" & fname == "timothy" ~ "tim",
lname == "allen" & fname == "thomas" ~ "tom",
lname == "bruggere" & fname == "thomas" ~ "tom",
lname == "carper" & fname == "thomas" ~ "tom",
lname == "coburn" & fname == "thomas" ~ "tom",
lname == "cotton" & fname == "thomas" ~ "tom",
lname == "daschle" & fname == "thomas" ~ "tom",
lname == "harkin" & fname == "thomas" ~ "tom",
lname == "hartnett" & fname == "thomas" ~ "tommy",
lname == "strickland" & fname == "thomas" ~ "tom",
lname == "sullivan" & fname == "p tom" ~ "tom",
lname == "figures" & fname == "vivian" ~ "vivian davis",
lname == "minnick" & fname == "walter" ~ "walt",
lname == "allard" & fname == "a wayne" ~ "wayne",
lname == "ball" & fname == "gordon" ~ "william gordon",
lname == "lujan" & fname == "ben" ~ "ben ray",
lname == "slattery" & fname == "james" ~ "jim",
lname == "hoeven" & fname == "john & dalrymple" ~ "john",
lname == "hegar" & fname == "mary" ~ "mj",
lname == "mehta" & fname == "rikin" ~ "rik",
lname == "tuberville" & fname == "thomas" ~ "tommy",
TRUE ~ fname),
lname = case_when(lname == "damato" & fname == "al" ~ "d'amato",
lname == "orourke" & fname == "beto" ~ "o'rourke",
lname == "hyde smith" & fname == "cindy" ~ "hyde-smith",
lname == "rothman serot" & fname == "geri" ~ "rothman-serot",
lname == "lloyd jones" & fname == "jean" ~ "lloyd-jones",
lname == "odonnell" & fname == "christine" ~ "o'donnell",
TRUE ~ lname))
names_scores <- merge(poll_names,
select(scores,c(cycle, lname, fname, recipient.cfscore)),
by = c("fname", "lname", "cycle"), all.x = T) %>%
add_count(candidate_name, cycle)
# check missing cf scores
missing_cf_score <- subset(names_scores, is.na(recipient.cfscore) == T)
# merge without cycle
matching_cf_score <- merge(select(missing_cf_score, -recipient.cfscore),
select(scores,c(lname, fname, recipient.cfscore)),
by = c("lname", "fname")) %>%
distinct()
# rbind
names_scores <- rbind(names_scores[!is.na(names_scores$recipient.cfscore),],
matching_cf_score)
rm(cands, matching_cf_score, missing_cf_score, poll_names, scores)
rm(cf_scores, matching_cf_score, missing_cf_score, poll_names, scores)
# prepare candidate names in poll data
polls <- polls %>%
mutate(candidate_name_rep = candidate_name_rep %>%
tolower() %>%
str_replace_all(" van ", " van") %>%
str_remove_all("\\s+iii|[,]"),
candidate_name_rep =  case_when(candidate_name_rep == "pipkin" ~ "e pipkin",
TRUE ~ candidate_name_rep),
candidate_name_dem = candidate_name_dem %>%
tolower() %>%
str_replace_all(" van ", " van") %>%
str_remove_all("\\s+iii|[,]"))
# Dem. candidates
polls_scores_dem <- merge(polls,
select(names_scores, c(candidate_name, cycle,
recipient.cfscore)),
by.x = c("candidate_name_dem", "cycle"),
by.y = c("candidate_name", "cycle"), all.x = T) %>%
rename(cf_score_dem = recipient.cfscore)
# Rep. candidates
polls_scores <- merge(polls_scores_dem,
select(names_scores, c(candidate_name, cycle,
recipient.cfscore)),
by.x = c("candidate_name_rep", "cycle"),
by.y = c("candidate_name", "cycle"), all.x = T) %>%
rename(cf_score_rep = recipient.cfscore) %>%
mutate(senator = senator %>%
tolower() %>%
str_replace_all(" van ", " van") %>%
str_remove_all("\\s+iii|[,]"),
inc = case_when(candidate_name_rep == senator ~ "rep_inc",
candidate_name_dem == senator ~"dem_inc",
candidate_name_rep != senator & candidate_name_dem != senator ~ "open"))
# save data
saveRDS(polls_scores, "data/polls/polls1990_2022_fte_scores.RDS")
{
library(dplyr)
library(usdata)
library(readr)
library(readxl)
library(stringr)
}
# polls
polls <- readRDS("data/polls/polls1990_2022_fte_scores.RDS") # polls
# turnout
turnout <- readRDS("data/election_features/senate_turnout1990_2022.RDS") # turnout
# state control
state_control <- readRDS("data/election_features/us_senate_state_control.RDS") # state control
# state demorcacy index
grumbach <- read_csv("data/election_features/grumbach_state_democracy_index.csv") # state democracy index
# compute covariates
polls <- polls  %>%
rename("minority_dem" = minority_final_dem,
"minority_rep" = minority_final_rep,
"gender_dem" = gender_final_dem,
"gender_rep" = gender_final_rep) %>%
group_by(state, cycle) %>%
mutate(front_rep = sum(if_else(end_date == min(end_date) &
pct2_rep >= 0.525,1,0)),
front_dem = sum(if_else(end_date == min(end_date) &
pct2_rep < 0.475,1,0)),
early_date3 = list(sort(end_date, decreasing = F)[1:3]),
early_date5 = list(sort(end_date, decreasing = F)[1:5])) %>%
ungroup() %>%
mutate(sample_size = as.double(sample_size),
pct_dem = as.numeric(pct_dem)/100,
pct_rep = as.numeric(pct_rep)/100,
inc = case_when(candidate_name_rep == senator ~ "Rep. incumbent",
candidate_name_dem == senator ~ "Dem. incumbent",
TRUE ~ "Open seat") %>%
factor(levels = c("Dem. incumbent","Open seat",  "Rep. incumbent")),
minority = case_when(minority_rep == 1 & minority_dem == 0 ~
"Rep. minority",
minority_rep == 0 & minority_dem == 1 ~
"Dem. minority",
minority_rep == 0 & minority_dem == 0 |
minority_rep == 1 & minority_dem == 1 ~
"Neither/both minority") %>%
factor(levels = c("Dem. minority",  "Rep. minority",
"Neither/both minority")),
minority4 = case_when(minority_rep == 1 & minority_dem == 0 ~
"Rep. minority",
minority_rep == 0 & minority_dem == 1 ~
"Dem. minority",
minority_rep == 0 & minority_dem == 0 ~
"Neither minority",
minority_rep == 1 & minority_dem == 1 ~
"Both minority") %>%
factor(levels = c("Dem. minority", "Rep. minority", "Both minority",
"Neither minority")),
gender = case_when(gender_rep == 1 & gender_dem == 0 ~ "Rep. female",
gender_rep == 0 & gender_dem == 1 ~ "Dem. female",
gender_rep == 0 & gender_dem == 0 |
gender_rep == 1 & gender_dem == 1 ~
"Neither/both female") %>%
factor(levels = c("Dem. female", "Neither/both female", "Rep. female")),
gender4 = case_when(gender_rep == 1 & gender_dem == 0 ~ "Rep. female",
gender_rep == 0 & gender_dem == 1 ~ "Dem. female",
gender_rep == 0 &  gender_dem == 0 ~
"Neither female",
gender_rep == 1 & gender_dem == 1 ~ "Both female") %>%
factor(levels = c("Dem. female", "Rep. female", "Neither female",
"Both female")),
front = case_when(front_rep == 0 & front_dem >= 1 ~ "Dem. front runner",
front_rep == 0 & front_dem == 0 |
front_rep == 1 & front_dem == 1 ~ "No front runner",
front_rep >= 1 & front_dem == 0 ~ "Rep. front runner"),
state_abb = state2abbr(state),
early_poll3 = if_else(end_date %in% unlist(early_date3), 1, 0),
early_poll5 = if_else(end_date %in% unlist(early_date5), 1, 0)) %>%
select(-c(early_date3, early_date5)) %>%
group_by(state, cycle) %>%
mutate(front3 = case_when(all(pct2_rep[which(early_poll3 == 1)] > 0.525) ~ "Rep. front runner",
all(pct2_dem[which(early_poll3 == 1)] > 0.525) ~ "Dem. front runner",
TRUE ~ "No front runner"),
front5 = case_when(all(pct2_rep[which(early_poll5 == 1)] > 0.525) ~ "Rep. front runner",
all(pct2_dem[which(early_poll5 == 1)] > 0.525) ~ "Dem. front runner",
TRUE ~ "No front runner")) %>%
ungroup() %>%
select(-c(question_id, early_poll3, early_poll5))  %>%
group_by(state, cycle) %>%
mutate(sample_size = if_else(is.na(sample_size) == T,
mean(sample_size, na.rm = T),
sample_size)) %>%
ungroup()
# turnout
turnout <- turnout %>%
mutate(state = str_to_title(state))
polls <- merge(polls, turnout, all.x = T, by.x = c("state", "cycle"),
by.y = c("state", "year"))
rm(turnout)
# state control
state_control <- state_control %>%
mutate(state_abb = state2abbr(state))
polls <- merge(polls, state_control, by.x = c("state","state_abb", "cycle"),
by.y = c("state", "state_abb", "year"), all.x = T)
rm(state_control)
# state democracy index
polls <- merge(polls, grumbach[,c("state", "year", "democracy_mcmc")],
by.x = c("state", "cycle"), by.y = c("state", "year"), all.x = T)
rm(grumbach)
saveRDS(polls, "data/polls/us_senate_polls1990_2022_context.RDS")
library(dplyr)
polls <- readRDS("data/polls/us_senate_polls1990_2022_context.RDS")
vep <- readRDS("data/election_features/vep1990_2022.RDS")
# inflation adjustment factor
inflation_adj <- data.frame(year = seq(1990, 2022, 2),
adj_value = c(2.24, 2.09, 1.97, 1.87, 1.8,
1.7, 1.63, 1.55, 1.45, 1.36,
1.34, 1.27, 1.24, 1.22, 1.17,
1.13, 1))
# election level data
election_level_data <- polls %>%
group_by(cycle, state, state_abb, exp_rep, raising_rep, exp_dem,
raising_dem) %>%
summarise() %>%
ungroup()
# merge inflation adjustment
election_level_data <- merge(election_level_data, inflation_adj %>%
select(year, adj_value),
by.x = "cycle", by.y = "year", all.x = T)
rm(inflation_adj)
# calculate inflation adjusted expenditures and disbursements
#   adj_exp[year] = exp[year] * adj_value[2022]/adj_value[year] https://www.lawyerdb.de/Inflationsrechner.aspx
election_level_data <- election_level_data %>%
mutate(exp_adj_rep = (1/adj_value)*exp_rep,
raising_adj_rep = (1/adj_value)*raising_rep,
exp_adj_dem = (1/adj_value)*exp_dem,
raising_adj_dem = (1/adj_value)*raising_dem)
# merge VEP
election_level_data <- merge(election_level_data, vep,
by.x = c("cycle", "state_abb"),
by.y = c("cycle", "state"),
all.x = T)
rm(vep)
# calculate per VEP capita expenditures and raising
election_level_data <- election_level_data %>%
mutate(exp_pc_rep = exp_adj_rep/vep,
raising_pc_rep = raising_adj_rep/vep,
exp_pc_dem = exp_adj_dem/vep,
raising_pc_dem = raising_adj_dem/vep)
# merge to polling data
polls <- merge(polls, election_level_data,
by = c("cycle", "state", "state_abb", "exp_rep", "raising_rep",
"exp_dem", "raising_dem"))
saveRDS(polls, "data/polls/us_senate_polls1990_2022_context_finance.RDS")