Data and code for “Mapping sex- and age-structure reveals lonely males at the front in an expanding brown bear population”, Biological Conservation (2025)

Description of the data and file structure

This repository contains the following code files:

opscr_model folder

model_code.r: R code of the opscr model
run_model.r: R code to run the opscr model with nimbleSCR

The Zenodo repository https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14778737 contains the following data related to the opscr model scripts:

• bear_opscr_data_resub.RData: Data to run the opscr model. All objects in this data file are formatted to feed the model into the nimbleSCR package. Given the sensitivity of the study species, coordinates in the data objects are only given in the scaled format. A more detailed description of the data objects is provided in the run_model.r script.
• myResults_RESUB_3-3.4_param.RData: Posterior samples of structural parameters obtained as results from the opscr model.
• myResults_RESUB_3-3.4_sxy.RData: Posterior samples of Activity centers, z, age, and sex obtained as results from the opscr model.

Functions folder

Additional functions to the R package nimbleSCR to run the model_code.r file. These include:

• getSexSigma: R function to index cubs with the sigma of the females in the opscr model.
• dbinomLocal_normalBear_rbinom2: R function to improve computational efficiency in detection component.

Projections folder

proj_model_code: R code of the spatial and demographic projection models
1. Estimate_female_pcr.r: R code to estimate female per capita recruitment from the results of the opscr model
2.1. Run_demographic_projection.r: R code to format and run the demographic projection
2.2. Run_spatial_projection.r: R code to format and run the spatial projection

The Zenodo repository https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14779070 contains the following data related to the projections scripts:

• itera.RData: iterations randomly selected from the opscr model results to run the projection model
• pcr_all_fem.RData: Results (posterior samples) of female per capita recruitment. Output from the r script 1. Estimate_female_pcr.r
• proj_pcr.all.fem.sc0.RData - proj_pcr.all.fem.sc3.RData: Posterior samples of the demographic projection model (scenarios 0 -3)
• proj_pcr.core.fem.consDist.RData, proj_pcr.core.fem.decDistProg1.RData: Posterior samples from the spatial projection model (scenarios of constant and decreasing distance to core).