Predicting the annual number of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease cases by U.S. county
West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of arboviral disease in the contiguous United States. An estimated 70–80% of WNV infections are asymptomatic; 20–30% of infected persons develop an acute systemic febrile illness and <1% of infected persons develop neuroinvasive disease (e.g., meningitis, encephalitis, or myelitis). Among patients with neuroinvasive disease, the case-fatality ratio is approximately 10%. Due to its severity and distinctive clinical features, diagnosis and reporting of neuroinvasive disease is considered more consistent and complete than that of non-neuroinvasive disease.
The first cases of WNV disease in the United States were identified in New York City in 1999; the virus subsequently spread westward, reaching the Pacific coast in 2003. Since then, WNV has caused seasonal summer outbreaks that vary in size and location, with most areas having sporadic disease or intermittent outbreaks. No vaccine or specific treatment for WNV infection is currently available. Reducing mosquito exposure through vector control and personal protective behaviors are the primary forms of prevention. Predicting where and when WNV transmission will occur could help direct public health control efforts.
Challenge
This is an open forecasting challenge to predict the total number of neuroinvasive WNV disease cases for each county in the contiguous United States that will be reported to ArboNET during the 2020 calendar year. The forecasting target is described on the Target page. Participation guidelines are described on the Participation page and evaluation criteria are described on the Evaluation page. Information about historical data for the counties is available on the Data page.
Timeline
- Project announcement and historical data release: March 2020
- Initial forecast due: April 30, 2020
- Additional forecasts due (optional): May 31, June 30, and July 31, 2020