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122 changes: 122 additions & 0 deletions app/public/data/storytelling-md/eoadashMarkdown_ANTARCTIC_LOWS.md

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# El Niño 2023-2024: rising sea surface temperatures (SST)

The strength and frequency of La Niña and El Niño were once determined entirely by natural factors, but now the climate patterns are evidencing the contribution of human actions. A [new study](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-023-00427-8 ) set out to determine the impact of greenhouse gases emissions on the major climate driver ENSO, suggesting that climate change is making La Niña and El Niño [more frequent and more extreme](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06236-9 ). Around 40 to 50 million people are currently [affected in 16 countries](https://wmo.int/media/news/un-el-nino-debate-emphasizes-need-integrated-action ), in particular in the regions of eastern and southern Africa, the Horn of Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean as well as the Asia-Pacific region. Severe drought and associated food security, flooding, heavy rains, and high temperatures caused by [El Niño caused a wide range of health problems](https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Our_oceans_are_in_hot_water ), including disease outbreaks, malnutrition and heat stress.


<figure style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/eurodatacube/eodash-assets/main/stories/el_nino_SST/La_nina_2022_vs_El_nino_2023.png"
alt="El Niño and La Nina 2023 Land Temperatures"
style="display: block; margin: 0 auto;">
<figcaption>
El Niño and La Niña. Upper figure: Sea surface temperature anomaly at El Niño status over the tropical pacific. 5-day average from 16 to 20 November 2023, observed by the GCOM-W/AMSR2. Bottom Figure: Sea surface temperature anomaly distribution over the tropical pacific at La Niña status. 5-day average from 16 to 20 November 2022, observed by the GCOM-W/AMSR2. Credit: JAXA
</figcaption>
</figure>


## Europe and Asia’s Marine Heatwave
The unprecedented sea surface temperatures have been associated with marine heatwaves: periods of unusual high ocean temperatures. These can have significant and sometimes devastating impacts on ocean ecosystems, and biodiversity, potentially leading to socio-economic impacts due to their impact on industry such as fisheries, tourism or aquaculture. Sea surface temperatures and marine heatwaves affected various regions in the summer of 2023, as reported by the Copernicus Climate Change Service during June-July-August.
The North Atlantic and the Mediterranean basin were particularly impacted by these heatwaves, leading to [significant sea surface temperature anomalies](https://marine.copernicus.eu/news/2023-northern-hemisphere-summer-record-breaking-oceanic-events ) and severe marine heatwaves .
Of special concerning was the Atlantic Ocean near Ireland and the United Kingdom, where extreme marine heatwave occur in June 2023, with sea temperatures up to 5 °C [above average](https://climate.copernicus.eu/global-sea-surface-temperature-reaches-record-high ) . For the entire year, the average sea surface temperature across European waters was the highest on record, with parts of the Mediterranean Sea and northeastern Atlantic seeing their warmest annual averages [ever recorded](https://climate.copernicus.eu/global-sea-surface-temperature-reaches-record-high ).
<figure style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://marine.copernicus.eu/sites/default/files/media/image/2023-09/Ocean%20heat%20content%20june%202023.png"
alt="El Niño and La Nina 2023 Land Temperatures"
style="display: block; margin: 0 auto;">
<figcaption>
Ocean heat content anomalies (0-300 metres deep) for June 2023. Credits: Copernicus Marine Service / Mercator Ocean International
</figcaption>
</figure>


Regarding this year, in January 2024 global sea surface temperature [was the highest on record ](https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/at-peak-value-of-2-c-above-average-sea-surface-temperature-2023-24-el-nino-among-strongest-on-record-94825 )for this month . As of late April 2024, positive sea surface temperature anomalies have weakened across most of the Pacific, with below-average temperatures emerging in the far eastern Pacific, [indicating a potential transition to ENSO-neutral conditions](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf ). Model forecasts suggest a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral likely to happening in the coming months, with a 60% chance of La Nina developing by June-August 2024 [as the El Niño dissipates](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf ).




## High SSTs in Japan
Figure below shows a map of SST anomalies for July 2023. Overall, SSTs tend to be higher than normal, especially in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Tohoku and Hokkaido, where they are more than 5°C higher than normal. The Kuroshio extension, which normally flows eastward from Joban-oki, moved northward to Sanriku-oki this season, bringing high water temperatures. In a recent report of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), it was pointed out that this high SST may have been one of the factors that brought record high temperatures to northern Japan this summer.





## The Coasts of Tohoku and Hokkaido <!--{ as="eox-map" mode="tour" }-->

### <!--{ layers='[{"type":"Tile","properties":{"id":"osm"},"source":{"type":"OSM"}}]' center=[160,35] zoom="5" animationOptions="{duration:500}" }-->
#### High Sea Surface Temperatures near Japan
Overall, SSTs tend to be higher than normal, especially in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Tohoku and Hokkaido, where they are more than 5°C higher than normal.

### <!--{ layers='[{"type":"Tile","properties":{"id":"osm"},"source":{"type":"OSM"}}]' center=[140,38] zoom="6" animationOptions="{duration:500}" }-->
#### The Kuroshio extension
The Kuroshio extension, which normally flows eastward from Joban-oki, moved northward to Sanriku-oki this season, bringing high water temperatures.
The Kuroshio extension, which normally flows eastward from Joban-oki, moved northward to Sanriku-oki this season, bringing high water temperatures.
<figure style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/eurodatacube/eodash-assets/main/stories/el_nino_SST/temp-difference.png"
alt="El Niño and La Nina 2023 Land Temperatures"
style="display: block; margin: 0 auto;">
<figcaption>
Distribution of AMSR2 monthly mean SST anomalies for July 2023 in the seas around Japan (20-50°N, 120-160°E). Credit: JAXA
</figcaption>
</figure>



### <!--{ layers='[{"type":"Tile","properties":{"id":"osm"},"source":{"type":"OSM"}}]' center=[143,42] zoom="8" animationOptions="{duration:500}" }-->
#### Monthly mean SST anomalies
The anomalies in the seas around Japan vary between -1°C and +1°C. In recent years, August 2022 and July 2023 were particularly warm.
In addition to global warming, SSTs in the ocean around Japan are changing under the influence of complex variations in the ocean current system, which has a significant impact on Japan’s weather, climate, and fisheries. To meet the demand for monitoring and forecasting such oceanic changes, JAXA, in cooperation with the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, operates the “Ocean Weather Forecast” for the area around Japan, providing forecast results of water temperature and current speed up to about two weeks ahead. The Ocean Weather Forecast uses SST data from the AMSR series to improve forecast accuracy. Figure below shows the monthly mean SST anomalies in the seas around Japan (20-50°N, 120-160°E), which shows the long-term trends of variations, excluding seasonal cycles.

<figure style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/eurodatacube/eodash-assets/main/stories/el_nino_SST/sst_anomaly.png"
alt="El Niño and La Nina 2023 Land Temperatures"
style="display: block; margin: 0 auto;">
<figcaption>
Time series of monthly mean SST anomalies in the seas around Japan (20-50°N, 120-160°E). Credit: JAXA
</figcaption>
</figure>

## Open Science

<p>Here are some key types of variables and datasets from Earth observation satellite missions that can be used to track El Niño and La Niña events, with special attention to ocean-related surface temperatures. This summary focuses on missions from ESA, NASA, and JAXA:</p>

<ul>
<li><strong><a href="https://www.eumetsat.int/website/home/Data/DataOverview/SeaSurfaceTemperature/index.html">Sea Surface Temperature (SST)</a></strong> from satellites like:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://climate.esa.int/en/overview/sea-surface-temperature/">ESA's Climate Change Initiative (CCI) SST</a></li>
<li><a href="https://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/dataprod/mod28.php">NASA's Aqua/MODIS and Terra/MODIS</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.jaxa.jp/projects/sat/gcom_w1">JAXA's GCOM-W/AMSR2</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><strong><a href="https://earth.esa.int/eogateway/missions/cryosat">Sea Surface Height (SSH)</a></strong> from altimeter missions like:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://earth.esa.int/eogateway/missions/cryosat">ESA's CryoSat-2</a> and <a href="https://sentinels.copernicus.eu/web/sentinel/missions/sentinel-3">Sentinel-3</a></li>
<li><a href="https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/jason-3/">NASA/CNES's Jason-3</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
</li>
</ul>
</li>



### References

1. Cai, W., Ng, B., Geng, T. et al. Anthropogenic impacts on twentieth-century ENSO variability changes. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 407–418 (2023). [doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00427-8](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-023-00427-8#citeas)
2. Geng, T., Jia, F., Cai, W. et al. Increased occurrences of consecutive La Niña events under global warming. Nature 619, 774–781 (2023).[doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06236-9](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06236-9#citeas)
3. UN El Niño debate emphasizes need for integrated action [World Meterological Organization](https://wmo.int/media/news/un-el-nino-debate-emphasizes-need-integrated-action)
4. Our oceans are in hot water [ESA](https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Our_oceans_are_in_hot_water)
5. The 2023 Northern Hemisphere Summer Marks Record-Breaking Oceanic Events [Copernicus Marine Service](https://marine.copernicus.eu/news/2023-northern-hemisphere-summer-record-breaking-oceanic-events)
6. Global sea surface temperature reaches a record high [Copernicus Climate Change Service](https://climate.copernicus.eu/global-sea-surface-temperature-reaches-record-high)
7. At peak value of 2°C above average sea surface temperature, 2023-24 El Nino among strongest on record [Down To Earth](https://www.downtoearth.org.in/climate-change/at-peak-value-of-2-c-above-average-sea-surface-temperature-2023-24-el-nino-among-strongest-on-record-94825)
8. ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions [NOOA](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf)





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