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Welcome to chess-predictions repository

About

This is a Mini-Project for SC1015 (Introduction to Data Science and Artificial Intelligence). We focus on making predictions on black's first move, based on a chess game dataset containing over 20,000 chess games from LiChess, and can be found here.

Problem Statement

Given the following constraints:

  • White's first move
  • White and Black's chess ratings
  • Rating difference
  • Number of turns taken

What are the next five most probable moves for black?

Notebook Order

The flow of our project is as follows:

  1. Initial exploratory data analysis (EDA), found under Pre Model Analysis.ipynb
  2. Data preparation and modelling, found under MLR Model.ipynb
  3. Post model analysis and graphing, found under Post Model.ipynb

Models Used

  1. Multinomial Logistic Regression

Conclusion

  • The model attains a final evaluative score of 22.5/100 on average.
  • Although the model may not be able to accurately predict the next black move, it is able gives a possible idea of the move.
  • Chess games that are played by humans are still largely unpredictable.
  • Perhaps the model should not be used to attempt to accurately predict black’s first move; rather, to see what other players would do in the same situation.

What did we learn from this project?

  • Transformation of DataFrames in Pandas (e.g., conversion of categorical to numeric values)
  • Using MLR modelling
  • 3D graphing techniques
  • How to use GitHub

Individual Contributions

  • Shao Wei: EDA, data preparation
  • Junius: MLR processing, data export
  • Donchada: Post model analysis

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