2022 Feb 18
今天刚从蛇口港回来,发现1月的方案太保守了.要更新一下,首先先把目标定一下: 提高胜率. 多赚钱是次要的. 在胜率不降低的情况下,多赚钱.
接下来,我把关键的细节记录一下,方便后续review. 数据如下:
16 vs 7 : DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Seven7, playerStartValue=16 [isDouble()=false, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:26.193567586820908->26.60005852819367 $d:0.0->5.714046380375154 $l:73.8064324131791->67.68589509143116 improve value x$w(high is good):0.40649094137276265 x$d:5.714046380375154 x$l(negative is good):-6.120537321747932 $w-$l: -47.612864826358184 -> -41.0858365632375 _ _ lift : 6.527028263120682 : good :) hit
16对7要一张,胜率提高了0.4%,失败率降低了6.12%,平局增加了5.71%,整体提升了6.527%,所以请咬牙要.
H
16 vs 8 DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Eight8, playerStartValue=16 [isDouble()=false, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=true] org->adv $w:24.369289795036515->24.31551805109735 $d:0.0->5.8552807900616894 $l:75.63071020496348->69.82920115884096 improve value x$w(high is good):-0.05377174393916562 x$d:5.8552807900616894 x$l(negative is good):-5.8015090461225185 $w-$l: -51.26142040992696 -> -45.51368310774361 _ #Surrender# lift : 5.747737302183353 : good :) hit
如果不要牌,(庄家的胜率-我们的胜率)达到了51.2614%,超过了50%,就意味着我们投降是划算的.优先投降. [不对,这样对胜率不利,不应该投降,应该要牌]
16对8,要一张后,胜率和败率都下降了,其实都转化到了平率上. 自己的败率下降的更快,也就是说庄家的胜率下降的更大,值了.
H
16 vs 9 DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Nine9, playerStartValue=16 [isDouble()=false, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=true] org->adv $w:22.92418933219526->21.70506674433606 $d:0.0->5.967159535571979 $l:77.07581066780475->72.32777372009195 improve value x$w(high is good):-1.2191225878592 x$d:5.967159535571979 x$l(negative is good):-4.748036947712791 $w-$l: -54.15162133560949 -> -50.62270697575588 _ #Surrender# lift : 3.5289143598536077 : good :) hit
不要牌就投降. 要牌我们的胜率下降1.2点,庄家胜率下降4.748,值得换.换来的还是去了平率.但就算要牌,(庄家的胜率-我们的胜率) 还是达到了50%,对我们非常不利.
G/H
16 vs T DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Ten, playerStartValue=16 [isDouble()=false, isHit()=false, isSurrender()=true] org->adv $w:21.24709353187227->18.649703938729186 $d:0.0->6.096999210435696 $l:78.75290646812773->75.25329685083511 improve value x$w(high is good):-2.5973895931430846 x$d:6.096999210435696 x$l(negative is good):-3.49960961729262 $w-$l: -57.50581293625546 -> -56.603592912105924 _ #Surrender# lift : 0.902220024149536 : good :| stand
优先投降. 要牌转化率也不好,一般来说偷鸡就好了.所以建议不能投降的话也不要要牌.
G/S
16 vs A DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=One1, playerStartValue=16 [isDouble()=false, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=true] org->adv $w:11.5472965879632->14.57027312064755 $d:0.0->6.847951231899621 $l:88.4527034120368->78.58177564745283 improve value x$w(high is good):3.0229765326843516 x$d:6.847951231899621 x$l(negative is good):-9.870927764583968 $w-$l: -76.90540682407361 -> -64.01150252680527 _ #Surrender# lift : 12.893904297268332 : good :) hit
看数据就是再要一张,败率都转化到胜率和平率上了.挺好. 如果在最后位,此时要不要都不会改变什么,因为来个6你爆了,庄家也会成17点.
H
16 总结:
9,T优先投降
投降不了的话:7,8,9,A都要牌, T不要牌偷鸡. :D
15 vs 7 DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Seven7, playerStartValue=15 [isDouble()=false, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:26.193567586820908->28.354559680702216 $d:0.0->5.6886652267373075 $l:73.8064324131791->65.95677509256048 improve value x$w(high is good):2.1609920938813083 x$d:5.6886652267373075 x$l(negative is good):-7.849657320618618 $w-$l: -47.612864826358184 -> -37.60221541185825 _ _ lift : 10.010649414499929 : good :) hit
看数据,要就完事了.
H
15 vs 8 DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Eight8, playerStartValue=15 [isDouble()=false, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:24.369289795036515->25.924330495953175 $d:0.0->5.832952119279137 $l:75.63071020496348->68.24271738476769 improve value x$w(high is good):1.5550407009166598 x$d:5.832952119279137 x$l(negative is good):-7.387992820195791 $w-$l: -51.26142040992696 -> -42.318386888814516 _ _ lift : 8.943033521112442 : good :) hit
6张牌不会爆,要就完事了,提升了8.94%.
H
15 vs 9 DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Nine9, playerStartValue=15 [isDouble()=false, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=true] org->adv $w:22.92418933219526->23.215728359977987 $d:0.0->5.928331021767451 $l:77.07581066780475->70.85594061825455 improve value x$w(high is good):0.29153902778272567 x$d:5.928331021767451 x$l(negative is good):-6.219870049550195 $w-$l: -54.15162133560949 -> -47.64021225827657 _ #Surrender# lift : 6.511409077332919 : good :) hit
要了还是有47.64%的劣势,索性优先投降,投不了就要一张. [不对,这样对胜率不利,不应该投降,应该要牌]
H
15 vs T DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Ten, playerStartValue=15 [isDouble()=false, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=true] org->adv $w:21.24709353187227->20.117866564903235 $d:0.0->5.987317307555999 $l:78.75290646812773->73.89481612754078 improve value x$w(high is good):-1.1292269669690356 x$d:5.987317307555999 x$l(negative is good):-4.858090340586955 $w-$l: -57.50581293625546 -> -53.77694956263754 _ #Surrender# lift : 3.728863373617919 : good :) hit
要牌还是有53%的劣势,优先投降.降不了就要.
G/H
15总结:
T投降，其他要牌.
14 vs 9 DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Nine9, playerStartValue=14 [isDouble()=false, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:22.92418933219526->25.14186001251494 $d:0.0->5.929305188360633 $l:77.07581066780475->68.92883479912444 improve value x$w(high is good):2.217670680319678 x$d:5.929305188360633 x$l(negative is good):-8.1469758686803 $w-$l: -54.15162133560949 -> -43.7869747866095 _ _ lift : 10.364646548999989 : good :) hit
对9要一张可以,数据不支持投降.
H
14 vs T DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Ten, playerStartValue=14 [isDouble()=false, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=true] org->adv $w:21.24709353187227->21.83493618095885 $d:0.0->6.060977031065685 $l:78.75290646812773->72.10408678797546 improve value x$w(high is good):0.5878426490865785 x$d:6.060977031065685 x$l(negative is good):-6.648819680152272 $w-$l: -57.50581293625546 -> -50.26915060701662 _ #Surrender# lift : 7.2366623292388415 : good :) hit
对10要牌还是差50.269%,弃牌最优.
G/H
14总结:
T投降，其他要牌.
13 vs T DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Ten, playerStartValue=13 [isDouble()=false, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=true] org->adv $w:21.24709353187227->23.515973747641862 $d:0.0->6.096999210435696 $l:78.75290646812773->70.38702704192245 improve value x$w(high is good):2.2688802157695918 x$d:6.096999210435696 x$l(negative is good):-8.365879426205282 $w-$l: -57.50581293625546 -> -46.871053294280586 _ #Surrender# lift : 10.634759641974878 : good :) hit
对10,要一张后数据不支持投降.
13总结:
有8张牌可以帮助,对战7,8,9,T 都不投降.
如果在最后一位, 13vs89TA,14vs9TA,15vsTA,开始,要不要都改变不了结局,改变的只是前面的人的命运.
13 vs 2 DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Two2, playerStartValue=13 [isDouble()=false, isHit()=false, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:35.350370555696244->32.19987094688945 $d:0.0->5.0051326021396445 $l:64.64962944430376->62.794996450970906 improve value x$w(high is good):-3.150499608806797 x$d:5.0051326021396445 x$l(negative is good):-1.8546329933328494 $w-$l: -29.299258888607515 -> -30.595125504081462 _ _ lift : -1.295866615473945 : bad :| stand
要一张,自己损失的胜率比敌人要大2倍,所以停止.
S
12 vs 2 DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Two2, playerStartValue=12 [isDouble()=false, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:35.350370555696244->34.65229083815197 $d:0.0->4.966934947447152 $l:64.64962944430376->60.38077421440088 improve value x$w(high is good):-0.6980797175442746 x$d:4.966934947447152 x$l(negative is good):-4.268855229902876 $w-$l: -29.299258888607515 -> -25.72848337624891 _ _ lift : 3.570775512358604 : good :) hit
要一张,敌人损失的胜率是自己的6倍,都转移到平率去了,值得要一张.
H
12 vs 3 DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Three3, playerStartValue=12 [isDouble()=false, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:37.419409717495085->35.73171382373884 $d:0.0->4.80787540749085 $l:62.5805902825049->59.46041076877031 improve value x$w(high is good):-1.687695893756242 x$d:4.80787540749085 x$l(negative is good):-3.120179513734591 $w-$l: -25.16118056500981 -> -23.72869694503147 _ _ lift : 1.432483619978342 : good :) hit
很难抉择的一种场景,相比自己,敌人只损失了1.5倍左右的胜率,这时最好看表,奇数要牌,偶数不要牌.
?
11 vs 2 DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Two2, playerStartValue=11 [isDouble()=true, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:35.350370555696244->57.989968118991854 $d:0.0->7.712012570081357 $l:64.64962944430376->34.29801931092678 improve value x$w(high is good):22.63959756329561 x$d:7.712012570081357 x$l(negative is good):-30.351610133376973 $w-$l: -29.299258888607515 -> 23.691948808065067 _ !Double! lift : 52.99120769667258 : good :) hit
看数据超过敌人23%的胜率,double.
double: w:58.03501857069991 $d:7.710313288291107 $l:34.25466814100897 346957 : now Money: 475.607008593819
hit: w:57.99053075460757 $d:8.09219530619508 $l:33.917273939197344 667225 : now Money: 240.7325681541022
D
11 vs 7
hit w:59.73569251953793 $d:9.83084026572613 $l:30.433467214735938 739585 : now Money: 293.02225304801976
double w:58.08188882005674 $d:7.309377932766352 $l:34.608733247176914 24973 : now Money: 469.46311145759626
多花一倍的钱,效率在60%
D
11 vs 8
double: w:55.20387651665247 $d:7.427187474830083 $l:37.368936008517444 14989 : now Money: 356.69881016270085
hit: w:56.5490368696232 $d:10.009720813174212 $l:33.44124231720257 443905 : now Money: 231.07794552420637
一倍的钱,带来了54%的效率
D
11 vs 9 DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Nine9, playerStartValue=11 [isDouble()=true, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:22.92418933219526->52.20412380480073 $d:0.0->7.34322669473891 $l:77.07581066780475->40.45264950046036 improve value x$w(high is good):29.27993447260547 x$d:7.34322669473891 x$l(negative is good):-36.623161167344385 $w-$l: -54.15162133560949 -> 11.751474304340364 _ !Double! lift : 65.90309563994985 : good :) hit
胜率超过10%,double不眨眼.
double w:52.24293343537405 $d:7.342271411376943 $l:40.41479515324901 9997 : now Money: 236.56276564250066 9997 : earn Money: 236.56276564250066 ,playtimes 26.0 ,effect: 9.098567909326949
hit: w:52.99561229328905 $d:9.968779125045467 $l:37.035608581665485 296065 : now Money: 159.60003711623543 296065 : earn Money: 159.60003711623543 ,playtimes 385.0 ,effect: 0.41454555095126083
double 多花了一倍的钱,收益只多了48.5%,好像不划算啊.
D
11 vs T DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Ten, playerStartValue=11 [isDouble()=false, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:21.24709353187227->47.32600560001775 $d:0.0->8.661983872532373 $l:78.75290646812773->44.01201052744988 improve value x$w(high is good):26.07891206814548 x$d:8.661983872532373 x$l(negative is good):-34.74089594067785 $w-$l: -57.50581293625546 -> 3.313995072567871 _ _ lift : 60.81980800882334 : good :) hit
再要一张的优势只剩3.31%,只能要一张,不能double了.
H
11总结: 11 vs 2~9 数据上来看可以double.
10 vs 2 DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Two2, playerStartValue=10 [isDouble()=true, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:35.350370555696244->55.10952954115352 $d:0.0->7.842220010060117 $l:64.64962944430376->37.048250448786355 improve value x$w(high is good):19.759158985457276 x$d:7.842220010060117 x$l(negative is good):-27.6013789955174 $w-$l: -29.299258888607515 -> 18.061279092367172 _ !Double! lift : 47.36053798097469 : good :) hit
看数据优势有18%,超过阈值10%,可以double.
double w:55.154579992861606 $d:7.885571179977968 $l:36.95984882716042 346957 : now Money: 363.8946233140237
hit w:55.11009217676924 $d:8.270952262092283 $l:36.61895556113847 667225 : now Money: 184.91136615630796
多一倍钱,多赚96.8%,值.
D
10 vs 6
double w:61.10339389825439 $d:6.826925135263911 $l:32.06968096648169 40417 : now Money: 580.6742586354543
hit w:61.10339389825439 $d:6.826925135263911 $l:32.06968096648169 40417 : now Money: 290.33712931772715
花费一倍的钱,得到一倍的收益.值.
D
10 vs 7
hit: w:57.924057517641046 $d:10.04933800182038 $l:32.02660448053856 739585 : now Money: 258.97453037102485
double: w:56.254445758131766 $d:7.541489442300127 $l:36.2040647995681 24973 : now Money: 401.0076191712729
花费一倍的钱,收益多了54%,有点不划算.
后面又算了一下effect,的确投入不算好的回报,但跟其他牌与dealer比,已经算是少有不多的好回报了,所以double吧
D
10 vs 8 DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Eight8, playerStartValue=10 [isDouble()=true, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:24.369289795036515->53.55461867445699 $d:0.0->7.346830598062096 $l:75.63071020496348->39.09855072748092 improve value x$w(high is good):29.185328879420474 x$d:7.346830598062096 x$l(negative is good):-36.53215947748256 $w-$l: -51.26142040992696 -> 14.45606794697607 _ !Double! lift : 65.71748835690303 : good :) hit
看数据优势有14.5%,超过阈值10%,可以double.
hit: w:54.9788315289958 $d:9.93352094927619 $l:35.08764752172801 443905 : earn Money: 198.91184007267776 ,effect: 0.5166541300589033
double: w:53.59621222030865 $d:7.462945086405506 $l:38.94084269328584 14989 : now Money: 293.1073905404568 ,effect: 11.120052266904676
double 多花了一倍的钱,收益只多了47%,好像不划算啊.
D
10 vs 9 DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Nine9, playerStartValue=10 [isDouble()=false, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:22.92418933219526->49.408470810874675 $d:0.0->8.724958182286697 $l:77.07581066780475->41.86657100683864 improve value x$w(high is good):26.484281478679414 x$d:8.724958182286697 x$l(negative is good):-35.209239660966105 $w-$l: -54.15162133560949 -> 7.541899804036034 _ _ lift : 61.693521139645526 : good :) hit
优势只有7.54%,低于阈值10%,只hit不double.
H
10总结: 10 vs 2~8 在数据上都支持double.
9 vs 3
hit w:51.38361937154563 $d:7.443925328741931 $l:41.17245529971245 388825 : earn Money: 102.1116407183317 ,playtimes 25.0 ,effect: 4.084465628733268
double w:49.68027154993403 $d:6.863659621410223 $l:43.456068828655745 202189 : earn Money: 124.4840544255656 ,playtimes 26.0 ,effect: 4.787848247137139
effect money效率没有提升,胜率也不支持,不值得double
H
9 vs 4
DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Four4, playerStartValue=9 [isDouble()=true, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:39.58049180346554->51.386273610369706 $d:0.0->6.628212972206414 $l:60.41950819653445->41.98551341742389 improve value x$w(high is good):11.805781806904164 x$d:6.628212972206414 x$l(negative is good):-18.433994779110563 $w-$l: -20.839016393068917 -> 9.400760192945818 _ !Double! lift : 30.239776586014735 : good :) hit
这里我想double,但小于10%的阈值,所以只hit 有次遇到了我9double后出现了一张2,当场停止傻眼,看着被庄家干掉,心里有了阴影.
hit时的胜率是: w:53.02809290263602 $d:7.190053236747816 $l:39.781853860616174 | 比较组合有226825 : earn Money: 132.4623904201982 ,effect: 5.298495616807928 double后的胜率是: w:51.38627361036967 $d:6.628212972206417 $l:41.98551341742391 | 比较组合有117949种,收益 188.01520385891519,effect: 7.231353994573661 绝对胜率差距有3%,成本提高一倍,收益提高44.6%,不划算呐.
H
9 vs 5 DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Five5, playerStartValue=9 [isDouble()=true, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:41.84059422952501->53.15018188882523 $d:0.0->6.3977420616042835 $l:58.15940577047499->40.45207604957048 improve value x$w(high is good):11.30958765930022 x$d:6.3977420616042835 x$l(negative is good):-17.70732972090451 $w-$l: -16.318811540949984 -> 12.698105839254753 _ !Double! lift : 29.016917380204738 : good :) hit
数据支持double,
D
9 vs 6 DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Six6, playerStartValue=9 [isDouble()=true, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:42.28416043620767->54.916220757349045 $d:0.0->6.187173140905379 $l:57.71583956379233->38.896606101745576 improve value x$w(high is good):12.632060321141374 x$d:6.187173140905379 x$l(negative is good):-18.819233462046753 $w-$l: -15.431679127584651 -> 16.019614655603466 _ !Double! lift : 31.451293783188117 : good :) hit
数据支持double
D
9 vs 7 DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Seven7, playerStartValue=9 [isDouble()=false, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:26.193567586820908->49.29032247171355 $d:0.0->6.9641232864182046 $l:73.8064324131791->43.74555424186825 improve value x$w(high is good):23.096754884892643 x$d:6.9641232864182046 x$l(negative is good):-30.060878171310847 $w-$l: -47.612864826358184 -> 5.544768229845304 _ _ lift : 53.157633056203494 : good :) hit
优势没有超过10%,只hit
H
9总结: 只对5和6进行double.
以上这些基本操作会对后面的分牌造成决定性的影响,所以要把上面的结论确定下来. 数据通过TestOne计算出来和 Jan16Test2022改double / hit方案测试出来.
9 vs 56 double
10 vs 28 double
11 vs 29 double
2022-Feb-25
22 vs 4
hit w:46.02320173766002 $d:3.2869636734822407 $l:50.68983458885774 2839849 : earn Money: -46.666328511977234 ,playtimes 313.0 ,effect: -0.14909370131622118
when 9 vs 4 double w:47.027888052978994 $d:3.8064375728941195 $l:49.165674374126894 14162953 : earn Money: 2060.819856834654 ,playtimes 5230.0 ,effect: 0.3940382135439109
when 9 vs 4 hit w:47.14645590803534 $d:3.847104967100822 $l:49.00643912486383 14380705 : earn Money: 1693.9250692505948 ,playtimes 5224.0 ,effect: 0.32425824449666824
胜率没有大幅提高,决定对22vs4不split,9vs4不double
如此的话,33vs4也不用计算了.
H
22 vs 6
w:50.0677240242995 $d:3.6567722724947314 $l:46.275503703205786 Money Total: 8787.620523782785
S
77 vs 5
split w:46.77229359790462 $d:6.511159914441072 $l:46.71654648765431 530881 : earn Money: 4105.7406908102785 ,playtimes 526.0 ,effect: 7.805590666939693
stand w:41.840594229524996 $d:0.0 $l:58.15940577047501 5473 : earn Money: -163.18811540950003 ,playtimes 1.0 ,effect: -163.18811540950003
分牌胜率高一些些,收益也多,分
77 vs 6
split w:47.8298801642281 $d:7.721552165309465 $l:44.44856767046243 301573 : earn Money: 7115.306965434069 ,playtimes 526.0 ,effect: 13.527199554057166
stand w:42.28416043620766 $d:0.0 $l:57.71583956379235 3109 : earn Money: -154.31679127584687 ,playtimes 1.0 ,effect: -154.31679127584687
分牌胜率高一些些,收益也多,分
88 vs 2
stand w:35.35037055569618 $d:0.0 $l:64.64962944430383 26689 : earn Money: -292.9925888860764 ,playtimes 1.0 ,effect: -292.9925888860764
split w:45.331923663099275 $d:8.09237524955381 $l:46.575701087346914 2588833 : earn Money: 1268.1501735930738 ,playtimes 448.0 ,effect: 2.830692351770254
胜率没有超过败率,选择停牌,不分
--
88 vs 3
split w:47.110054671389726 $d:7.455953886120483 $l:45.4339914424898 1135369 : earn Money: 3799.2017338676146 ,playtimes 376.0 ,effect: 10.104259930498975
stand w:37.419409717495114 $d:0.0 $l:62.580590282504886 15553 : earn Money: -251.6118056500976 ,playtimes 1.0 ,effect: -251.6118056500976
分
88 vs 7
split w:48.79942192475807 $d:11.616429965676184 $l:39.58414810956576 1546405 : earn Money: 9062.290816778634 ,playtimes 2584.0 ,effect: 3.5070784894654157
stand w:26.193567586820915 $d:0.0 $l:73.8064324131791 1921 : earn Money: -476.1286482635817 ,playtimes 1.0 ,effect: -476.1286482635817
分
99 vs 2
split w:49.631680403335864 $d:7.817669755703246 $l:42.55064984096089 1948297 : earn Money: 6824.833568587813 ,playtimes 298.0 ,effect: 22.90212606908662
stand w:49.31601058520999 $d:13.438862674532222 $l:37.24512674025778 26689 : earn Money: 120.70883844952209 ,playtimes 1.0 ,effect: 120.70883844952209
99 vs 6
split w:56.352396833663896 $d:6.502878862802364 $l:37.144724303533735 152341 : earn Money: 16678.315633039045 ,playtimes 226.0 ,effect: 73.79785678335861
stand w:58.85482152551146 $d:10.61940442406256 $l:30.525774050425987 3109 : earn Money: 283.2904747508546 ,playtimes 1.0 ,effect: 283.2904747508546
99 vs 7
split w:52.986232963261536 $d:9.89522208948275 $l:37.118544947255714 1523353 : earn Money: 13679.549350356023 ,playtimes 2458.0 ,effect: 5.565317066865754
stand w:63.11437111287399 $d:13.793092270091048 $l:23.092536617034966 1921 : earn Money: 400.2183449583904 ,playtimes 1.0 ,effect: 400.2183449583904
虽然split输掉的概率提高了14%,但收益的上升却是非常大的,值得冒险.
分
99 vs 8
split w:49.44766986495144 $d:10.469944696421635 $l:40.082385438626915 914329 : earn Money: 8160.073233593286 ,playtimes 2458.0 ,effect: 3.319801966474079
stand w:37.26328900905531 $d:35.99549138645802 $l:26.741219604486684 1153 : earn Money: 105.22069404568651 ,playtimes 1.0 ,effect: 105.22069404568651
两种方案的胜率-败率都是10%. 分牌后输掉的概率提高了13,但收益的提升可以弥补损失吗?这个是否值得? 分派后有5张牌ATJQK直接帮助你,1张牌2可以让Double,一共6张好牌;1张9就买中保险,不亏钱,出1张8直接17,剩下34567需要再要牌.
整体来说,分.
A6 vs 5
DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Five5, playerStartValue=6 [isDouble()=true, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:41.84059422952501->51.104223151119946 $d:12.18434584844274->7.2930804108765654 $l:45.97505992203225->41.60269643800349 improve value x$w(high is good):9.263628921594936 x$d:-4.891265437566175 x$l(negative is good):-4.37236348402876 $w-$l: -4.134465692507239 -> 9.501526713116448 _ !Double! lift : 13.635992405623687 : good :) hit
double
A6 vs 6
DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Six6, playerStartValue=6 [isDouble()=true, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:42.28416043620767->52.262876822540264 $d:16.57066108930379->8.28273659205428 $l:41.14517847448853->39.45438658540547 improve value x$w(high is good):9.978716386332593 x$d:-8.287924497249511 x$l(negative is good):-1.6907918890830587 $w-$l: 1.1389819617191432 -> 12.808490237134789 _ !Double! lift : 11.669508275415646 : good :) hit
double
A6 vs 7
DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Seven7, playerStartValue=6 [isDouble()=false, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:26.193567586820908->42.535081231322465 $d:36.92080352605307->14.24470690168396 $l:36.88562888712602->43.22021186699358 improve value x$w(high is good):16.341513644501557 x$d:-22.67609662436911 x$l(negative is good):6.334582979867562 $w-$l: -10.692061300305106 -> -0.6851306356711162 _ _ lift : 10.00693066463399 : good :) hit
整体效果 org->adv $w:26.193567586820894->44.24371721789503 $d:36.920803526053085->16.767599404484383 $l:36.88562888712602->38.98868337762059 improve value x$w(high is good):18.050149631074138 x$d:-20.153204121568702 x$l(negative is good):2.1030544904945714 $w-$l: -10.692061300305127 -> 5.255033840274442 _ _ lift : 15.94709514057957 : good :) hit
hit
A6 vs 8
DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Eight8, playerStartValue=6 [isDouble()=false, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:24.369289795036515->39.209940831235805 $d:12.893999214018798->8.73390160303877 $l:62.73671099094469->52.05615756572543 improve value x$w(high is good):14.84065103619929 x$d:-4.160097610980028 x$l(negative is good):-10.680553425219259 $w-$l: -38.36742119590817 -> -12.846216734489618 _ _ lift : 25.521204461418556 : good :) hit
整体效果 org->adv $w:24.369289795036504->40.60498827885871 $d:12.89399921401881->11.326300972703693 $l:62.73671099094468->48.068710748437596 improve value x$w(high is good):16.23569848382221 x$d:-1.5676982413151173 x$l(negative is good):-14.668000242507084 $w-$l: -38.36742119590817 -> -7.463722469578881 _ _ lift : 30.90369872632929 : good :) hit
hit
A7 vs 6
DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Six6, playerStartValue=7 [isDouble()=true, isHit()=false, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:58.85482152551147->56.07729035159126 $d:10.619404424062568->6.900432723349183 $l:30.525774050425973->37.02227692505956 improve value x$w(high is good):-2.7775311739202095 x$d:-3.718971700713385 x$l(negative is good):6.496502874633585 $w-$l: 28.329047475085495 -> 19.055013426531698 _ !Double! lift : -9.274034048553798 : bad :| stand
stand w:58.85482152551147 $d:10.619404424062568 $l:30.525774050425962 3109 : now Money: 283.2904747508551 ,effect: 0.09111948367669832
hit w:56.07729035159126 $d:6.900432723349183 $l:37.02227692505956 40417 : Before Money: 190.55013426531715 ,effect: 0.004714603613957423
纯优势从28.3%->19%, 选停
A7 vs 7
DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Seven7, playerStartValue=7 [isDouble()=true, isHit()=false, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:63.11437111287399->51.065741752631276 $d:13.793092270091048->8.89230393528956 $l:23.09253661703497->40.04195431207916 improve value x$w(high is good):-12.048629360242714 x$d:-4.900788334801488 x$l(negative is good):16.949417695044193 $w-$l: 40.02183449583902 -> 11.023787440552113 _ !Double! lift : -28.998047055286907 : bad :| stand
stand w:63.11437111287398 $d:13.793092270091051 $l:23.092536617034973 1921 : now Money: 400.21834495839016 ,effect: 0.2083385450069704
hit w:52.81169872942739 $d:11.427481441010428 $l:35.76081982956217 739585 : Before Money: 170.50878899865097 ,effect: 2.30546575442513E-4
选停
A7 vs 8
DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Eight8, playerStartValue=7 [isDouble()=false, isHit()=false, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:37.26328900905532->42.08856164421289 $d:35.99549138645802->14.174000348271104 $l:26.74121960448667->43.73743800751602 improve value x$w(high is good):4.825272635157567 x$d:-21.821491038186917 x$l(negative is good):16.99621840302935 $w-$l: 10.522069404568645 -> -1.6488763633031311 _ _ lift : -12.170945767871777 : bad :| stand
stand w:37.26328900905532 $d:35.99549138645802 $l:26.741219604486666 1153 : now Money: 105.22069404568651 ,effect: 0.09125819084621553
hit w:43.518828704890915 $d:16.774339656271493 $l:39.70683163883759 443905 : Before Money: 38.119970660532196 ,effect: 8.587416375245199E-5
纯优势从10.52%->3.81% 不划算,选停
A7 vs 9
DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Nine9, playerStartValue=7 [isDouble()=false, isHit()=true, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:34.95517480992236->38.47300575853028 $d:11.734847635517633->8.579171177762367 $l:53.30997755456001->52.947823063707354 improve value x$w(high is good):3.517830948607916 x$d:-3.1556764577552663 x$l(negative is good):-0.36215449085265305 $w-$l: -18.354802744637645 -> -14.47481730517708 _ _ lift : 3.879985439460565 : good :) hit
stand w:34.955174809922376 $d:11.734847635517626 $l:53.30997755455999 769 : now Money: -183.54802744637618 ,effect: -0.2386840408925568
hit w:39.298527525972425 $d:11.22803361566019 $l:49.47343885836739 296065 : Before Money: -101.74911332395007 ,effect: -3.4367153606116923E-4
有提升,要
A7 vs T
DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=Ten, playerStartValue=7 [isDouble()=false, isHit()=false, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:32.43849443867281->34.19928574464488 $d:11.166875604703378->8.65448496182615 $l:56.39462995662381->57.146229293528975 improve value x$w(high is good):1.7607913059720701 x$d:-2.5123906428772287 x$l(negative is good):0.7515993369051657 $w-$l: -23.956135517951 -> -22.946943548884093 _ _ lift : 1.0091919690669082 : good :| stand
stand w:32.43849443867282 $d:11.166875604703383 $l:56.394629956623795 385 : now Money: -239.56135517950986 ,effect: -0.6222372861805451
hit w:34.592224157241446 $d:10.72770911732027 $l:54.68006672543828 74305 : Before Money: -200.87842568196845 ,effect: -0.0027034308011838833
有提升,要
A7 vs A
hit one more DealerVSPlayerChance [ deckStatus=0 dealerCard=One1, playerStartValue=7 [isDouble()=false, isHit()=false, isSurrender()=false] org->adv $w:24.548959667640755->24.583248200504176 $d:13.082155614562557->9.844260294138504 $l:62.36888471779668->65.57249150535732 improve value x$w(high is good):0.03428853286342104 x$d:-3.2378953204240535 x$l(negative is good):3.2036067875606378 $w-$l: -37.81992505015592 -> -40.98924330485315 _ _ lift : -3.169318254697223 : bad :| stand
stand w:24.548959667640812 $d:13.082155614562504 $l:62.36888471779668 14209 : now Money: -378.1992505015587 ,effect: -0.026616880181684757
hit w:26.613468588460698 $d:12.883878625533212 $l:60.50265278600608 5470465 : Before Money: -338.89184197545376 ,effect: -6.194936663984758E-5
有提升,要
2022.01.16
1.RivalAnalyzeUtil 是一切的起点,通过这个类,比较再来一张牌和不要的胜率区别。 2.关于胜率的计算，一个使用出现概率来计算，一个是通过出现组合来计算，差别非常大：因为有些组合会非常多，但概率小。 具体Dealer牌产生的差距在 AnalyzeCardsPathValue.java 里面有展示。 最后我还是决定用概率的形式来进行分析和计算。 3.我提高了double的要求，必须胜率在比庄家高10%以上才double. 4.我降低了投降的要求，当胜率比庄家低45%的时候就投降，这样17vsT也会投降了。 5.发现就算庄家是6也有57%的胜率。 6.strategy包是测试特定方案的包,可以测试指定的打法对结果的影响,可以创建两个有稍微差异的来比较结果。 7.strategy8102包是用遗传算法算方案的包，分固定方法 和 可变进化方法，配置变异率以后跑自己的结果。
01.17 01:05 现实中面临的是有限的几次机会，怎样才能得到更好的结果。 怎么定义更好的结果： 1.赢的概率高，就是说在不同的打法中，选赢得概率高的打法，有些打法需要hit后再根据结果决定是否hit,这样分散了选择，让结果更多，但更多的结果带来的是降低了胜率，那就选择少但胜率高的方案。 2.输的钱少，这样，在庄家比我们优势高45%以上的时候，放弃1%~5%的机会，把一半钱拿回来，选择giveup，是否能达到目的，这种结果是17vsT的时候，选择投降。 3.有大机会时再double，否则稳定一些，赢了就好。这样造成9vs everything都不double了。
Double:
9 vs 5,6
T vs 28
11 vs 29
A6 vs 6
投降： 14 vs T 15 vs 9,T 16 vs 8,9,T 17 vs T
Hit 12 vs 2 16 vs 7,8,9 A7 vs 9 vs T , A ???
2019 April 22
通过穷举,计算blackjack的所有最优解. 算了很久,找到了最优解. 然而,胜率依然是庄家占优,赌徒就是输钱的料,计算加上算牌,但现在是6副+蜗牛机,优势不大.
最终结果是Myth2019April22.java