CS:GO Market Analysis

Some interesting stats from the CS:GO Steam community market.

Dataset

The data was collected by scraping Steam market pages using CollectData.ipynb. Collection took ~4 days with Steam's rate-limiting being the main bottleneck. Overall, 10,125 items were collected. My pre-collected dataset.pkl is available upon request.

Counts

View Counts

item_type	item_type (counts)	weapon	weapon (counts)	knife_type	knife_type (counts)	collection	collection (counts)	type_rare	type_rare (counts)	condition	condition (counts)	price_group	price_group (counts)	is_stattrak	is_stattrak (counts)	is_souvenir	is_souvenir (counts)
autographcap	12	MP5-SD	93	Skeleton	65	The Blacksite Collection	3	Base	164	Battle-Scarred	1817	$1000-$2000	140	True	3289	True	827
key	24	R8 Revolver	121	Nomad	77	The Assault Collection	22	Extraordinary	268	Well-Worn	1882	$10-$100	1747	False	6404	False	9298
case	32	Negev	126	Paracord	78	The Aztec Collection	27	Industrial	802	Factory New	1905	<$1	2609
package	96	M249	128	Survival	83	The Office Collection	27	Consumer	927	Field-Tested	2130	$100-$1000	2620
gloves	268	SSG 08	183	Classic	88	The Dust Collection	36	Classified	1027	Minimal Wear	2227	$1-$10	3009
weapon	9693	SCAR-20	189	Ursus	111	The Arms Deal Collection	48	Restricted	1721
		MAG-7	199	Butterfly	113	The Vertigo Collection	50	Mil-Spec	2444
		G3SG1	200	Talon	114	The Gods and Monsters Collection	50	Covert	2772
		MP9	204	Bowie	115	The Inferno Collection	54
		P2000	205	Huntsman	119	The Militia Collection	55
		MP7	209	Falchion	124	The Bank Collection	62
		USP-S	209	Shadow Daggers	124	The Chop Shop Collection	65
		FAMAS	212	Navaja	126	The eSports 2013 Collection	66
		SG 553	216	Stiletto	126	The Alpha Collection	71
		M4A1-S	216	Karambit	142	The Arms Deal 2 Collection	72
		CZ75-Auto	218	M9	154	The Baggage Collection	75
		Dual Berettas	219	Bayonet	163	The Rising Sun Collection	75
		AWP	220	Flip	163	The Control Collection	79
		Sawed-Off	229	Gut	169	The Norse Collection	80
		Desert Eagle	229			The eSports 2013 Winter Collection	82
		Nova	234			The Ancient Collection	83
		M4A4	234			The Canals Collection	83
		XM1014	235			The Havoc Collection	85
		UMP-45	235			The Nuke Collection	87
		Galil AR	238			The Arms Deal 3 Collection	102
		Five-SeveN	238			The Phoenix Collection	104
		PP-Bizon	246			The Cobblestone Collection	105
		AUG	246			The Winter Offensive Collection	106
		Glock-18	252			The Bravo Collection	112
		Tec-9	256			The Breakout Collection	118
		MAC-10	291			The Train Collection	122
		P90	293			The Chroma 2 Collection	124
		AK-47	302			The Italy Collection	124
		P250	314			The Vanguard Collection	124
		Knife	2254			The Chroma Collection	126
						The Cache Collection	128
						The Lake Collection	130
						The Safehouse Collection	130
						The Mirage Collection	136
						The eSports 2014 Summer Collection	138
						The Chroma 3 Collection	140
						The Overpass Collection	147
						The Clutch Collection	150
						The Falchion Collection	154
						The Dust 2 Collection	154
						The Wildfire Collection	156
						The Spectrum Collection	156
						The 2018 Inferno Collection	156
						The Danger Zone Collection	156
						The Operation Hydra Collection	157
						The CS20 Collection	158
						The Horizon Collection	160
						The Prisma Collection	160
						The Revolver Case Collection	160
						The Operation Broken Fang Collection	160
						The Shadow Collection	160
						The Fracture Collection	160
						The Glove Collection	162
						The Gamma 2 Collection	164
						The Shattered Web Collection	166
						The Gamma Collection	166
						The 2018 Nuke Collection	167
						The Prisma 2 Collection	170
						The Spectrum 2 Collection	170
						The Huntsman Collection	178

Median Sell Price

View Median Sell Prices

item_type	item_type (median price)	weapon	weapon (median price)	knife_type	knife_type (median price)	collection	collection (median price)	type_rare	type_rare (median price)	condition	condition (median price)	price_group	price_group (median price)	is_stattrak	is_stattrak (median price)	is_souvenir	is_souvenir (median price)
case	0.59	MP5-SD	0.51	Navaja	96.77	The Bank Collection	0.16	Consumer	0.47	Battle-Scarred	4.09	<$1	0.34	False	4.19	True	4.55
weapon	5.69	R8 Revolver	0.66	Shadow Daggers	113.31	The Blacksite Collection	0.19	Mil-Spec	0.83	Well-Worn	4.2	$1-$10	3.23	True	11.33	False	6.95
key	6.3	M249	0.66	Gut	125.0	The Train Collection	0.42	Industrial	2.18	Field-Tested	5.07	$10-$100	28.21
autographcap	15.85	SCAR-20	0.77	Falchion	135.56	The Clutch Collection	0.64	Restricted	3.15	Minimal Wear	8.71	$100-$1000	214.52
package	16.4	G3SG1	0.88	Huntsman	161.0	The Dust 2 Collection	0.66	Base	10.69	Factory New	11.21	$1000-$2000	1355.14
gloves	294.7	UMP-45	0.96	Nomad	161.42	The Spectrum 2 Collection	0.86	Classified	13.34
		Negev	1.06	Stiletto	161.79	The Gamma 2 Collection	0.87	Covert	176.61
		Sawed-Off	1.08	Ursus	161.99	The Spectrum Collection	0.94	Extraordinary	294.7
		Nova	1.1	Classic	169.55	The Chroma 3 Collection	0.96
		MAG-7	1.15	Bowie	170.17	The Italy Collection	0.96
		PP-Bizon	1.16	Survival	174.06	The Lake Collection	0.98
		MP9	1.2	Flip	185.58	The CS20 Collection	1.06
		CZ75-Auto	1.26	Paracord	225.52	The Danger Zone Collection	1.12
		MP7	1.31	Bayonet	305.02	The Glove Collection	1.14
		P2000	1.34	Talon	308.5	The Safehouse Collection	1.18
		Dual Berettas	1.38	M9	350.2	The Horizon Collection	1.28
		Tec-9	1.6	Karambit	458.72	The Gamma Collection	1.31
		Galil AR	1.8	Skeleton	480.72	The Prisma Collection	1.38
		MAC-10	1.93	Butterfly	548.24	The 2018 Nuke Collection	1.38
		XM1014	1.96			The Operation Broken Fang Collection	1.49
		Five-SeveN	2.04			The Prisma 2 Collection	1.54
		SG 553	2.04			The Fracture Collection	1.59
		P250	2.1			The 2018 Inferno Collection	1.67
		SSG 08	2.73			The Havoc Collection	1.75
		P90	2.8			The Inferno Collection	1.84
		AUG	3.12			The Shattered Web Collection	1.85
		Glock-18	3.37			The Breakout Collection	1.87
		FAMAS	3.94			The Overpass Collection	1.95
		Desert Eagle	8.71			The Chroma Collection	2.19
		USP-S	12.5			The Alpha Collection	2.21
		M4A4	14.62			The Shadow Collection	2.24
		M4A1-S	15.7			The Chroma 2 Collection	2.26
		AWP	28.6			The Revolver Case Collection	2.45
		AK-47	40.06			The Aztec Collection	2.46
		Knife	209.08			The Mirage Collection	2.54
						The Control Collection	2.62
						The Canals Collection	2.81
						The Vertigo Collection	2.81
						The Falchion Collection	2.92
						The Phoenix Collection	3.09
						The Wildfire Collection	3.3
						The Office Collection	3.31
						The Cache Collection	3.35
						The Huntsman Collection	3.51
						The eSports 2013 Winter Collection	3.86
						The Chop Shop Collection	4.05
						The Baggage Collection	4.76
						The eSports 2014 Summer Collection	4.76
						The Vanguard Collection	4.82
						The Gods and Monsters Collection	5.03
						The Norse Collection	5.1
						The Cobblestone Collection	5.36
						The Militia Collection	5.79
						The Ancient Collection	6.41
						The Winter Offensive Collection	6.55
						The Arms Deal 3 Collection	6.69
						The Operation Hydra Collection	6.84
						The Nuke Collection	7.41
						The Arms Deal 2 Collection	8.26
						The eSports 2013 Collection	11.96
						The Bravo Collection	14.3
						The Dust Collection	16.06
						The Assault Collection	23.78
						The Rising Sun Collection	42.33
						The Arms Deal Collection	62.84

Average Annual Return

View Average Annual Returns

item_type	item_type (annual return*)	weapon	weapon (annual return*)	knife_type	knife_type (annual return*)	collection	collection (annual return*)	type_rare	type_rare (annual return*)	condition	condition (annual return*)	price_group	price_group (annual return*)	is_stattrak	is_stattrak (annual return*)	is_souvenir	is_souvenir (annual return*)
gloves	0.027	M4A1-S	0.026	Paracord	-0.015	The Clutch Collection	-0.172	Extraordinary	0.027	Factory New	0.141	$100-$1000	0.102	True	0.082	False	0.161
weapon	0.158	AWP	0.087	Ursus	-0.008	The Prisma Collection	-0.026	Covert	0.091	Battle-Scarred	0.15	<$1	0.129	False	0.202	True	0.164
key	0.282	Knife	0.091	Stiletto	0.014	The Spectrum 2 Collection	-0.006	Classified	0.134	Well-Worn	0.153	$10-$100	0.199
package	0.522	Glock-18	0.101	Navaja	0.018	The Train Collection	0.005	Restricted	0.175	Minimal Wear	0.161	$1000-$2000	0.218
autographcap	0.69	Five-SeveN	0.127	Gut	0.054	The Gamma 2 Collection	0.008	Mil-Spec	0.183	Field-Tested	0.171	$1-$10	0.22
case	0.693	UMP-45	0.128	Huntsman	0.075	The Overpass Collection	0.023	Industrial	0.257
		CZ75-Auto	0.135	Flip	0.076	The Spectrum Collection	0.031	Consumer	0.282
		Sawed-Off	0.146	Bayonet	0.087	The Danger Zone Collection	0.031	Base	0.52
		P2000	0.147	Karambit	0.087	The Dust 2 Collection	0.054
		P250	0.157	M9	0.089	The Gamma Collection	0.056
		R8 Revolver	0.158	Bowie	0.09	The Blacksite Collection	0.06
		M4A4	0.166	Falchion	0.114	The Breakout Collection	0.064
		XM1014	0.167	Shadow Daggers	0.13	The Chroma 3 Collection	0.078
		Tec-9	0.171	Talon	0.139	The Glove Collection	0.088
		PP-Bizon	0.171	Classic	0.154	The Chroma 2 Collection	0.095
		G3SG1	0.175	Butterfly	0.286	The Horizon Collection	0.097
		AK-47	0.178	Nomad	0.425	The Bank Collection	0.104
		SG 553	0.185	Skeleton	0.465	The Vanguard Collection	0.108
		P90	0.192	Survival	0.591	The Italy Collection	0.131
		SCAR-20	0.197			The Revolver Case Collection	0.134
		Nova	0.198			The 2018 Inferno Collection	0.136
		MP7	0.215			The Safehouse Collection	0.137
		AUG	0.218			The Cache Collection	0.143
		FAMAS	0.224			The Lake Collection	0.145
		SSG 08	0.242			The Phoenix Collection	0.149
		Dual Berettas	0.243			The Nuke Collection	0.152
		Galil AR	0.248			The Inferno Collection	0.183
		USP-S	0.252			The Falchion Collection	0.184
		Desert Eagle	0.253			The Wildfire Collection	0.184
		MP9	0.264			The Arms Deal 3 Collection	0.196
		Negev	0.273			The eSports 2014 Summer Collection	0.197
		MAG-7	0.286			The Chroma Collection	0.204
		MAC-10	0.287			The Huntsman Collection	0.21
		M249	0.322			The Shadow Collection	0.213
		MP5-SD	0.413			The Mirage Collection	0.248
						The Arms Deal 2 Collection	0.249
						The eSports 2013 Collection	0.254
						The Winter Offensive Collection	0.285
						The Dust Collection	0.293
						The eSports 2013 Winter Collection	0.315
						The Aztec Collection	0.331
						The Cobblestone Collection	0.339
						The 2018 Nuke Collection	0.348
						The Bravo Collection	0.349
						The Militia Collection	0.355
						The Alpha Collection	0.368
						The Arms Deal Collection	0.394
						The Chop Shop Collection	0.431
						The Vertigo Collection	0.44
						The Operation Hydra Collection	0.453
						The Baggage Collection	0.48
						The Office Collection	0.492
						The Gods and Monsters Collection	0.496
						The CS20 Collection	0.606
						The Assault Collection	0.613
						The Rising Sun Collection	0.736
						The Shattered Web Collection	1.048
						The Canals Collection	4.382
						The Norse Collection	6.485
						The Ancient Collection	nan
						The Control Collection	nan
						The Fracture Collection	nan
						The Havoc Collection	nan
						The Operation Broken Fang Collection	nan
						The Prisma 2 Collection	nan

(*) 10% of outliers in each group and the first year of item sales are removed. "0.2" represents a average annual gain of +20% value. Only unrealized P/L analyzed and market fees are not included.

Average Daily Volume

View Average Daily Volumes

item_type	item_type (avg daily volume*)	weapon	weapon (avg daily volume*)	knife_type	knife_type (avg daily volume*)	collection	collection (avg daily volume*)	type_rare	type_rare (avg daily volume*)	condition	condition (avg daily volume*)	price_group	price_group (avg daily volume*)	is_stattrak	is_stattrak (avg daily volume*)	is_souvenir	is_souvenir (avg daily volume*)
gloves	1.187	Knife	0.95	Skeleton	0.371	The Baggage Collection	4.399	Extraordinary	1.187	Well-Worn	13.137	$1000-$2000	0.304	True	11.082	True	5.093
package	1.583	XM1014	24.804	Paracord	0.514	The Alpha Collection	4.597	Covert	1.56	Battle-Scarred	14.816	$100-$1000	0.995	False	42.83	False	30.909
autographcap	6.115	M249	31.816	Talon	0.551	The Militia Collection	4.799	Classified	21.313	Factory New	17.659	$10-$100	7.14
weapon	27.602	P90	33.249	Nomad	0.566	The Office Collection	5.213	Restricted	35.665	Minimal Wear	37.305	$1-$10	30.322
key	389.297	Dual Berettas	34.367	Survival	0.621	The Assault Collection	5.28	Industrial	48.094	Field-Tested	64.927	<$1	134.089
case	22857.922	MAG-7	35.229	Ursus	0.626	The Operation Hydra Collection	5.815	Mil-Spec	65.498
		Sawed-Off	35.941	Stiletto	0.681	The Nuke Collection	6.493	Consumer	82.593
		SCAR-20	36.393	Bowie	0.691	The Bravo Collection	7.19	Base	375.772
		MAC-10	38.383	Classic	0.699	The Mirage Collection	10.59
		Negev	38.724	Karambit	0.998	The eSports 2013 Collection	14.196
		M4A4	38.946	M9	1.033	The Vertigo Collection	15.208
		PP-Bizon	39.068	Navaja	1.08	The Norse Collection	15.295
		CZ75-Auto	39.157	Shadow Daggers	1.099	The Revolver Case Collection	18.79
		FAMAS	39.619	Bayonet	1.123	The Cache Collection	20.004
		G3SG1	39.821	Flip	1.348	The Arms Deal 3 Collection	20.08
		SSG 08	41.887	Falchion	1.397	The eSports 2014 Summer Collection	21.003
		AK-47	42.421	Gut	1.463	The Canals Collection	21.144
		SG 553	43.276	Huntsman	1.498	The Inferno Collection	21.875
		Nova	44.079	Butterfly	1.582	The Vanguard Collection	22.06
		AUG	46.046			The Overpass Collection	22.24
		Galil AR	46.977			The Shattered Web Collection	23.097
		P250	47.893			The Arms Deal 2 Collection	25.812
		M4A1-S	48.903			The Cobblestone Collection	26.303
		Five-SeveN	50.994			The Arms Deal Collection	26.673
		MP7	51.513			The eSports 2013 Winter Collection	28.503
		MP9	52.179			The Rising Sun Collection	31.023
		P2000	52.699			The Dust Collection	31.048
		Tec-9	58.691			The Winter Offensive Collection	32.348
		AWP	59.345			The Aztec Collection	32.621
		R8 Revolver	59.87			The Wildfire Collection	33.289
		USP-S	63.567			The Chop Shop Collection	34.624
		Desert Eagle	64.328			The Shadow Collection	34.945
		UMP-45	69.345			The Huntsman Collection	38.99
		Glock-18	84.963			The Chroma 3 Collection	40.94
		MP5-SD	87.642			The Gods and Monsters Collection	41.477
						The Chroma Collection	47.401
						The Gamma Collection	52.502
						The CS20 Collection	57.393
						The Horizon Collection	58.926
						The Falchion Collection	60.599
						The Gamma 2 Collection	61.959
						The 2018 Nuke Collection	65.511
						The Glove Collection	69.318
						The Spectrum Collection	70.38
						The 2018 Inferno Collection	75.107
						The Spectrum 2 Collection	83.327
						The Chroma 2 Collection	113.472
						The Clutch Collection	119.712
						The Dust 2 Collection	120.26
						The Prisma Collection	124.489
						The Phoenix Collection	124.939
						The Breakout Collection	129.469
						The Danger Zone Collection	139.348
						The Safehouse Collection	140.04
						The Italy Collection	156.474
						The Train Collection	164.74
						The Lake Collection	166.556
						The Bank Collection	435.001
						The Blacksite Collection	967.37
						The Ancient Collection	nan
						The Control Collection	nan
						The Fracture Collection	nan
						The Havoc Collection	nan
						The Operation Broken Fang Collection	nan
						The Prisma 2 Collection	nan

Condition

Condition	Avg. Relative Price to Same-Skin Battle-Scarred
Factory New	4.564
Minimal Wear	1.745
Field-Tested	1.079
Well-Worn	1.131
Battle-Scarred	1.0

Model

A random forest regressor was fit to (a random) 70% of the dataset. Given ['collection', 'condition', 'is_souvenir', 'is_stattrak', 'item_type', 'knife_type', 'log_avg_daily_volume', 'log_sell_listings', 'type_rare', 'weapon'] it was tasked with predicting log_sell_price. The model achieved a mean squared error of 0.100 and a r2 score of 0.925 on the test set. Below are the items with the highest disagreement between the model's predicted sell price and the items actually listed sell price.

Undervalued Rank (model price >>> actual)	Item
1	Boston 2018 Train Souvenir Package
2	G3SG1 | Jungle Dashed (Battle-Scarred)
3	UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)
4	R8 Revolver | Bone Mask (Battle-Scarred)
5	MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)

Overvalued Rank	Item
1	MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)
2	Souvenir MAG-7 | Irradiated Alert (Minimal Wear)
3	StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Black Sand (Well-Worn)
4	Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Field-Tested)
5	StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Plastique (Battle-Scarred)

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