tweaks

src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts

@@ -7,26 +7,26 @@ import type {
 
 // (age coefficient, age offset) for mean, than std. dev.
 const ratingsFormulas: Record<Exclude<RatingKey, "hgt">, Array<number>> = {
-	diq: [0.0023, -0.0524, -0.0, 0.0003],
-	dnk: [0.0018, -0.0465, -0.0003, 0.0091],
-	drb: [0.0026, -0.0648, 0.0, 0.0],
-	endu: [-0.012, 0.3214, 0.0016, -0.0357],
-	fg: [0.0011, -0.0236, -0.0004, 0.0191],
-	ft: [0.0018, -0.0396, -0.0007, 0.0285],
-	ins: [0.0005, -0.0197, 0.0003, 0.0108],
-	jmp: [-0.0051, 0.1082, 0.0041, -0.102],
-	oiq: [-0.0003, 0.0137, -0.0, 0.0014],
-	pss: [0.0019, -0.046, -0.0, 0.0001],
-	reb: [0.0019, -0.0506, -0.0, 0.0001],
-	spd: [-0.002, 0.0402, 0.001, -0.0252],
-	stre: [-0.0001, -0.0001, 0.0, 0.0],
-	tp: [0.0024, -0.0596, -0.0012, 0.0385],
+	diq: [0.0025, -0.056, -0.0, 0.0004],
+	dnk: [0.002, -0.0518, -0.0003, 0.0104],
+	drb: [0.0029, -0.0716, 0.0, 0.0],
+	endu: [-0.0135, 0.3619, 0.002, -0.0458],
+	fg: [0.0012, -0.0256, -0.0004, 0.0233],
+	ft: [0.0019, -0.0434, -0.0009, 0.039],
+	ins: [0.0007, -0.0246, 0.0004, 0.0132],
+	jmp: [-0.0055, 0.1173, 0.0053, -0.1313],
+	oiq: [-0.0003, 0.0163, -0.0001, 0.0016],
+	pss: [0.0021, -0.0512, -0.0, 0.0001],
+	reb: [0.0022, -0.0569, -0.0, 0.0002],
+	spd: [-0.0021, 0.0422, 0.0012, -0.0301],
+	stre: [-0.0001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0],
+	tp: [0.0026, -0.0652, -0.0015, 0.0464],
 };
 
 const calcBaseChange = (age: number, coachingRank: number): number => {
 	let val: number;
 
-	const base_coef = [-0.0039, 0.1018, 0.0003, 0.0266];
+	const base_coef = [-0.0044, 0.1138, 0.0004, 0.0341];
 
 	val = base_coef[0] * age + base_coef[1];
 	const std_base = base_coef[2] * age + base_coef[3];

src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts

@@ -29,102 +29,102 @@ const genRatings = (
 
 	const pca_comp = [
 		[
-			-0.04097378, 0.10708854, -0.37189642, -0.16707005, -0.31409436,
-			-0.29164582, 0.33714843, 0.10838294, -0.31849462, -0.12487201, -0.3799997,
-			0.12642711, -0.30714244, 0.03870837, -0.37182716,
+			-0.03143667, 0.13151142, -0.35923427, -0.14588372, -0.30707702,
+			-0.2923038, 0.35577568, 0.13378376, -0.30905554, -0.11226255, -0.36662078,
+			0.14404827, -0.3010302, 0.06513013, -0.38604742,
 		],
 		[
-			0.26861978, 0.3138044, 0.15214671, 0.24289334, 0.03620905, -0.02747153,
-			0.19318229, 0.47557852, 0.06119868, 0.21228091, 0.20542903, 0.40515214,
-			0.03863032, 0.4684178, -0.07482827,
+			0.28741613, 0.2948169, 0.18162839, 0.22216108, 0.04010548, -0.02320695,
+			0.16749835, 0.4756356, 0.08802667, 0.21357235, 0.24305432, 0.40340626,
+			0.05871636, 0.45862335, -0.05236033,
 		],
 		[
-			-0.18922555, 0.35164002, -0.30484948, 0.02890456, 0.30394453, 0.25071532,
-			0.28024483, -0.00872483, 0.26769468, 0.02539012, -0.5109063, -0.14047495,
-			0.2038116, 0.17138019, 0.29823953,
+			0.17881319, -0.36455768, 0.29882076, -0.03616037, -0.3152401, -0.26787323,
+			-0.27231044, -0.01128095, -0.2439317, -0.03754768, 0.50334144, 0.13699001,
+			-0.19139023, -0.1869137, -0.30742782,
 		],
 	];
 
-	const pca1 = 1.61 * hgt - 77.92 + random.realGauss(0, 15.4);
-	const pca2 = 0.51 * hgt - 24.93 + random.realGauss(0, 17.7);
-	const pca3 = 0.29 * hgt - 14.16 + random.realGauss(0, 9.3);
+	const pca1 = 1.62 * hgt - 78.12 + random.realGauss(0, 13.3);
+	const pca2 = 0.4 * hgt - 19.41 + random.realGauss(0, 14.9);
+	const pca3 = -0.28 * hgt + 13.35 + random.realGauss(0, 9.0);
 
 	const rawRatings = {
 		diq:
-			41.8 +
+			41.2 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][0] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][0] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][0],
 		dnk:
-			47.6 +
+			46.6 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][1] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][1] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][1],
 		drb:
-			49.5 +
+			49.1 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][2] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][2] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][2],
 		endu:
-			34.3 +
+			32.1 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][3] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][3] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][3],
 		fg:
-			43.1 +
+			42.3 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][4] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][4] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][4],
 		ft:
-			43.1 +
+			42.4 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][5] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][5] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][5],
 		hgt: hgt,
 		ins:
-			41.5 +
+			40.6 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][7] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][7] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][7],
 		jmp:
-			51.6 +
+			50.1 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][8] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][8] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][8],
 		oiq:
-			40.7 +
+			39.7 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][9] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][9] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][9],
 		pss:
-			46.4 +
+			45.8 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][10] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][10] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][10],
 		reb:
-			48.7 +
+			48.0 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][11] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][11] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][11],
 		spd:
-			51.8 +
+			50.7 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][12] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][12] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][12],
 		stre:
-			47.6 +
+			46.3 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][13] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][13] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][13],
 		tp:
-			44.2 +
+			44.0 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][14] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][14] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][14],
 	};
 
 	for (const key of helpers.keys(rawRatings)) {
-		rawRatings[key] = limitRating(rawRatings[key] * random.uniform(0.77, 1.23));
+		rawRatings[key] = limitRating(rawRatings[key] * random.uniform(0.8, 1.2));
 	}
 
 	const ratings = {

src/worker/core/player/ovr.basketball.ts

@@ -10,22 +10,22 @@ import type { PlayerRatings } from "../../../common/types.basketball";
 const ovr = (ratings: PlayerRatings): number => {
 	// See analysis/player-ovr-basketball
 	const r =
-		0.159 * (ratings.hgt - 47.5) +
-		0.0777 * (ratings.stre - 50.2) +
-		0.123 * (ratings.spd - 50.8) +
-		0.051 * (ratings.jmp - 48.7) +
-		0.0632 * (ratings.endu - 39.9) +
-		0.0126 * (ratings.ins - 42.4) +
-		0.0286 * (ratings.dnk - 49.5) +
-		0.0202 * (ratings.ft - 47.0) +
-		0.0726 * (ratings.tp - 47.1) +
-		0.133 * (ratings.oiq - 46.8) +
-		0.159 * (ratings.diq - 46.7) +
-		0.059 * (ratings.drb - 54.8) +
-		0.062 * (ratings.pss - 51.3) +
-		0.01 * (ratings.fg - 47.0) +
-		0.01 * (ratings.reb - 51.4) +
-		48.5;
+		0.0935 * ratings.diq +
+		0.042 * ratings.dnk +
+		0.0969 * ratings.drb +
+		0.00725 * ratings.endu +
+		-0.00948 * ratings.fg +
+		0.0488 * ratings.ft +
+		0.225 * ratings.hgt +
+		-0.0143 * ratings.ins +
+		0.0502 * ratings.jmp +
+		0.0974 * ratings.oiq +
+		0.0656 * ratings.pss +
+		0.0533 * ratings.reb +
+		0.156 * ratings.spd +
+		0.0962 * ratings.stre +
+		0.105 * ratings.tp +
+		-6.4;
 
 	// Fudge factor to keep ovr ratings the same as they used to be (back before 2018 ratings rescaling)
 	// +8 at 68