Health Impact of Realistic Consumable Availability Scenarios #1367
Conversation
- some CMD and Reproductive health consumables were classified as "not relevant to regression analysis" and therefore assume not change to availability. This has been removed. We now assume that their availability changes in proportion to the average increase in the odds of availability across all consuamables.
- this equates the probability of availability to be equal to that of the 75th, 90th and 99th percentile facility (in terms of the mean vale of `available_prop` within the corresponding level; only availability of facilities in levels 1a and 1b are updated
- {'Facility_ID', 'month', 'item_code', 'available_prop'} only need to be a subset of all the columns because there may be additional scenario columns
- specify all scenarios
- previously for each level of care, one best performing facility was chosen based on the average consumable availability across all item_codes; Now a different best performing facility is chosen for each level for each item_code, giving a greater improvement in available_prop
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Final set of consumable availability under various scenarios. All scenarios only affect levels 1a and 1b:
The following figures summarise:
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…nsumable_scenarios # Conflicts: # resources/healthsystem/consumables/ResourceFile_Consumables_availability_small.csv # resources/healthsystem/consumables/ResourceFile_consumables_matched.csv
…ilability scenarios
…health systems methods
…el 2 changes when levels 1b and 2 are collapsed
This reverts commit 6cbe0ee.
This reverts commit 09d8bb2.
+ update check format to accommodate versions of the RF without all availability columns This makes sure that the `check_format_of_consumables_file` function works for the dataframe created by consumable_availability_estimation.py and not just generate_consumable_availability_scenarios_for_impact_analysis.py
..and avoid instances of consumable availability falling below govt. supply chain levels when updating the constraint.
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Hi @tbhallett. Following our discussion of whether to add any scenarios for the FCDO analysis, this branch contains the consumable availability scenarios which I used to run the analysis I presented at the Think Tank. The list of scenarios and their description is provided here - #1367 (comment) One change I have made since last week is updating scenarios 10-12 so that the final probability of availability is the maximum or minimum of the original value and the average of the relevant high- (or low) performing supply chain, as opposed to simply the latter regardless of the original probability. |
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Hi @marghe-molaro. Responding to your question on slack here.
As you'll see Figure 1 in the comment here (#1367 (comment)), I have only updated the availability of HIV consumables to be equal to Minimum(original availability, average availability of consumables other than HIV, EPI and Cancer* (at the corresponding Facility_Level)). I see your point about updating TB and malaria consumables as well. But the challenge is that it is unclear to me whether the distribution supply chain for these is actually parallel. The supply chain can be parallel either for procurement or distribution. Parallel procurement exists across several programs - for eg. UNICEF procures IMCI and nutrition drugs. Parallel distribution is more limited. I have only been able to confirm parallel distribution (including maintenance of stock records) for HIV and EPI consumables and, hence, I had limited the scenario only to HIV (considering the perspective of Global Fund) - EPI consumables are managed by UNICEF as I understand it. References - https://www.theglobalfund.org/media/9060/oig_gf-oig-19-024_report_en.pdf; |
Thnaks VERY much @sakshimohan. Tagging in @tdm32 as she will incorporate these scenarios into her analyses. |
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Hi @sakshimohan , thanks so much for producing these. For the PR, would it be possible to rename the scenarios for the cons_availability argument with an informative name, such that they can be called from a script without needing to reference a list of definitions somewhere? |
Hi @tdm32. That's definitely what I plan to do. Would it be helpful if I make this change soon or should I prioritise it after I have made more progress with costing in the coming week? |
…y, new availability based on target percentile)
…nsumable_scenarios
This PR estimates the health impact of increasing consumable availability to realistic levels. Realistic levels lie somewhere between
defaultandallas predicted by the regression model or by assuming that all facilities perform as well as the facility at the nth percentile in terms of consumable availability.Changes:
ResourceFile_consumables_matched.csvto include a crosswalk between names of consumables in the TLO model and that under HHFAhealthsystem.pyandconsumables.pyto accommodate specification of which consumable availability estimates to usePending tasks: